[Efthreeoh]

In the April issue of Automobile Magazine Jamie Kitman wrote on the topic of the future when cars have become autonomous and there are no longer drivers, just passengers. He sees it, I think correctly, where the Telecom companies will see to it that they take the act of driving out of the automobile for the purposes of increasing their data-use/data mining market (i.e. redirect the time used to focus on driving to Googling). And what company is leading the trend on the driverless car? Google of course.

Kitman says the Taxpayer funded automation of the roads and cars will be justified by the Government on safety, efficiency, and environment preservation, which again he is right; money Kitman thinks should be used to solve global warming and feeding the hungry.

The liberal crap aside, I got to thinking what enthusiasts thought about the autonomous future. Is it really possible from an engineering standpoint? Is it really fundable with Taxpayer dollars? How do you feel about it? When do you think it will happen? Etc.

It is an interesting topic to think about

[gtaccord]

I see it as being an option in certain urban areas within the next 50 years but not mandatory. I think the infrastructure cost is too high and the legislative and legal concerns are big enough that it won't happen much before then. It will also require a fundamental shift in American culture which you can't really put a time line on.

[Woodengun]

If you commute on urban freeways during rush hour, some automated driving sounds very much needed.

Computer driven cars can drive much more densely than people driven cars. You enter your destination and at on ramp computer takes over . Wouldnt surprise me if computer driven cars could be spaced 1 inch apart. And not lose significant speed during entry/exit of freeways. Computer would shuffle cars around based on where their exit was. No more idiots doing the 3 lane shuffle to exit HERE! Lol.

Once on locals or out of dense urban/rush hour traffic, car control is returned to person driving car. A lot of details would need to be worked out but that is what I would see happening.

[yousefnjr]

I'm not a believer in the safety or reliability of full automation. Even the "latest and greatest" electronic devices have their share of bugs and failures (looking at you, iPhone). I work for a med device company that makes a $2mil surgical robot, and even that thing sees regular failures. No big deal when Safari on my phone crashes, but it's a different story when you're talking about putting your family in one of these things at 60mph+. Some things just need to have a real person behind them for when the unexpected happens.

[Woodengun]

Whats the "failure" rate of your every day commuter? Lol.

[Mavus]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

In the April issue of Automobile Magazine Jamie Kitman wrote on the topic of the future when cars have become autonomous and there are no longer drivers, just passengers. He sees it, I think correctly, where the Telecom companies will see to it that they take the act of driving out of the automobile for the purposes of increasing their data-use/data mining market (i.e. redirect the time used to focus on driving to Googling). And what company is leading the trend on the driverless car? Google of course.

Kitman says the Taxpayer funded automation of the roads and cars will be justified by the Government on safety, efficiency, and environment preservation, which again he is right; money Kitman thinks should be used to solve global warming and feeding the hungry.

The liberal crap aside, I got to thinking what enthusiasts thought about the autonomous future. Is it really possible from an engineering standpoint? Is it really fundable with Taxpayer dollars? How do you feel about it? When do you think it will happen? Etc.

It is an interesting topic to think about

I see this tech as an autopilot in airplanes with a manual override. Since the real driving schools are not mandatory to get your license, most drivers have no clue how to drive. Now add cell phones and food in the mix and you get traffic patterns and behaviors as we see on roads today. The autopilot would be a nice option in some cases for folks that should not drive, mainly teens and elderly. It is just a tool for certain applications but it will need to have a robust failure prevention. I see planes being fully automated before cars. Now think about how long it took FAA and airplane manufacturers to develop current systems and procedures, and the GPS tracking is still not implemented on transcontinental flights but it is present in every smart phone. It will be a long time until road traffic is fully automated. Potentially larger cities with dense infrastructure are main targets. I can't see it being implemented across US in the next 30 yrs mainly due to laws and non-existent procedures.

[yousefnjr]

Originally Posted by Woodengun

Whats the "failure" rate of your every day commuter? Lol.

The difference is that you're behind the wheel when something happens. If theres no steering wheel, like in some of the concepts floated around, you're at the mercy of software...

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by Smooth 330i

I see this tech as an autopilot in airplanes with a manual override. Since the real driving schools are not mandatory to get your license, most drivers have no clue how to drive. Now add cell phones and food in the mix and you get traffic patterns and behaviors as we see on roads today. The autopilot would be a nice option in some cases for folks that should not drive, mainly teens and elderly. It is just a tool for certain applications but it will need to have a robust failure prevention. I see planes being fully automated before cars. Now think about how long it took FAA and airplane manufacturers to develop current systems and procedures, and the GPS tracking is still not implemented on transcontinental flights but it is present in every smart phone. It will be a long time until road traffic is fully automated. Potentially larger cities with dense infrastructure are main targets. I can't see it being implemented across US in the next 30 yrs mainly due to laws and non-existent procedures.

So you brought up a subject I'm highly familiar with. The FAA's NextGen Initiative will bring aircraft en route separation down from 5 miles to 2.5 miles and that's for about 10,000 daily flights over the continental US. The handling of aircraft in terminal areas is still the work of aircraft controllers even though the NextGen system will provide pilots with far more situational awareness than they have now. And it is a far different problem than some massive computer system controlling thousands of cars on the roadway system of the US. Even local area control, let's say within a half mile can be hundreds of cars. Even if all those cars are equipped with full automation, as others have stated, no system is 100% perfect and failures (either software or hardware) will wreak havoc, if the idea is for cars to be spaced inches or even feet apart and speeds above 2 MPH.

The FAA is giving aircraft manufacturers and airlines until January 1, 2020 to equip planes for NextGen, and the rule went into effect 5 years ago. The push back to equip has been enormous, and the equipage is only to avionics and not to flight control hardware (planes already are automated). To make a such a similar change to the US roadway system would mean cars either must be converted with hardware and "avionics", or the entire fleet would need to change to autonomous capability. That's a massive undertaking either way. And how many people would want to pay tens of thousands of dollars to convert their existing vehicle(s) when the average value of the car is far less than the cost to equip.

I'm with Kitman on this one; it is far better to spend the money solving food distribution challenges and perhaps not solving global warming, but rather, say, improving the education system.

[fecurtis]

Originally Posted by Woodengun

If you commute on urban freeways during rush hour, some automated driving sounds very much needed.

Computer driven cars can drive much more densely than people driven cars. You enter your destination and at on ramp computer takes over . Wouldnt surprise me if computer driven cars could be spaced 1 inch apart. And not lose significant speed during entry/exit of freeways. Computer would shuffle cars around based on where their exit was. No more idiots doing the 3 lane shuffle to exit HERE! Lol.

Once on locals or out of dense urban/rush hour traffic, car control is returned to person driving car. A lot of details would need to be worked out but that is what I would see happening.

Yup, in an urban environment it would be theoretically possible to eliminate congestion entirely on interstate highways if all cars were automated.