[XutvJet]

I remain totally confused as to why the market continues to have upwards trajectory. Employment is really bad and I believe it will get worse. Right now, most of the lost jobs are blue collar. I'm a white collar worker in the environmental consulting industry and support mergers & acquisitions (due diligence). Our DD work has dried up 90%+ since mid-March. My private equity clients aren't doing deals for a multitude of reasons. The attorneys I work with have cut their hours significantly (i.e., taken big pay cuts). I'm taking voluntary vacation to help reduce the financial burden on our company. I'll likely be asked to temporarily reduce my hours and take a 20% pay cut and could possibly be furloughed. I have other white collar friends that are experiencing the same (mandatory vacation, furlough, pay cuts). I also have friends in the medical professional that have been furloughed or layed off because hardly anyone is doing elective surgery, PT, etc. I think the May and June unemployment numbers will be terrible.

As such, I feel the bottom is going to drop out in June/July (20%-30%+ drop). As the country opens back up (which I'm mostly in support of), I think there will be a second wave of outbreaks in the August-October timeframe and some of us will go back into a lock-down situation (maybe not as extreme). Hopefully the outbreaks will be better controlled and managed. A surge will certainly impact the market and the government can't keep sending out money it doesn't have.

I'm really wavering on selling a decent portion of my S&P 500 index funds and Berk Class B in my Roth, traditional IRA, and 401K and just holding it as cash. I wouldn't touch anything in my brokerage due to cap gains. These sales would represent about 15% of my total portfolio. I'm just trying to better manage the bleeding that I think is coming and trying to keep from taking a 40%+ hit like I did in the early 2000s and 2008-2011. Right now my total portfolio is down about 15% from it's peak earlier in the year.

I totally believe in long-term holding for the most part, but what I'm seeing makes no sense and this is a unique situation we're in right now. Am I off my rocker?

[BimmerDimmer6]

Yes, we're fucked

[Bimmer Nerd]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I remain totally confused as to why the market continues to have upwards trajectory. Employment is really bad and I believe it will get worse. Right now, most of the lost jobs are blue collar. I'm a white collar worker in the environmental consulting industry and support mergers & acquisitions (due diligence). Our DD work has dried up 90%+ since mid-March. My private equity clients aren't doing deals for a multitude of reasons. The attorneys I work with have cut their hours significantly (i.e., taken big pay cuts). I'm taking voluntary vacation to help reduce the financial burden on our company. I'll likely be asked to temporarily reduce my hours and take a 20% pay cut and could possibly be furloughed. I have other white collar friends that are experiencing the same (mandatory vacation, furlough, pay cuts). I also have friends in the medical professional that have been furloughed or layed off because hardly anyone is doing elective surgery, PT, etc. I think the May and June unemployment numbers will be terrible.

As such, I feel the bottom is going to drop out in June/July (20%-30%+ drop). As the country opens back up (which I'm mostly in support of), I think there will be a second wave of outbreaks in the August-October timeframe and some of us will go back into a lock-down situation (maybe not as extreme). Hopefully the outbreaks will be better controlled and managed. A surge will certainly impact the market and the government can't keep sending out money it doesn't have.

I'm really wavering on selling a decent portion of my S&P 500 index funds and Berk Class B in my Roth, traditional IRA, and 401K and just holding it as cash. I wouldn't touch anything in my brokerage due to cap gains. These sales would represent about 15% of my total portfolio. I'm just trying to better manage the bleeding that I think is coming and trying to keep from taking a 40%+ hit like I did in the early 2000s and 2008-2011. Right now my total portfolio is down about 15% from it's peak earlier in the year.

I totally believe in long-term holding for the most part, but what I'm seeing makes no sense and this is a unique situation we're in right now. Am I off my rocker?

Not at all.

An eventual dip is coming, I think it will be sooner than July, but we'll see. We're no more than 13-14% down from an ATH. The world is more than 13-14% fucked up. Hold on to your cash.

[corn18]

How will you know when to get back in? You have to be right twice.

[AlpineWhite_SJ]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I'm really wavering on selling a decent portion of my S&P 500 index funds and Berk Class B in my Roth, traditional IRA, and 401K and just holding it as cash. I wouldn't touch anything in my brokerage due to cap gains. These sales would represent about 15% of my total portfolio. I'm just trying to better manage the bleeding that I think is coming and trying to keep from taking a 40%+ hit like I did in the early 2000s and 2008-2011. Right now my total portfolio is down about 15% from it's peak earlier in the year.

I totally believe in long-term holding for the most part, but what I'm seeing makes no sense and this is a unique situation we're in right now. Am I off my rocker?

Not off your rocker, but if you don’t need the cash, why eat a 15% loss? Especially when it’s only a fraction of your portfolio...

I’d only sell to hedge against losing employment (possible) if the cash would put you in a better place to weather that, or to put it into a safer asset category. But there aren’t a whole lot of options that are appealing right now.

[Benedict1957]

Originally Posted by corn18

How will you know when to get back in? You have to be right twice.

Yeah that's the million dollar question.

There's nothing wrong with taking a risk by going cash right now as long as one recognizes it for what it is - a risk.

Some people will get back in at the right time. Some people will fail to get back in and will have to buy in when the market is much more expensive. I've played this game before once and I lost. I made a bad bet. This way back in late 2011 when the S&P500 had a correction. I sold during the correction and failed to get back in until 3 years later because I was betting on another 2008-like crash that never happened. This bet was with about 15% of my total portfolio, but it still stings.

I'll continue with my buy and hold strategy that's given me a 10%+ compound annual growth rate over over the last 30+ years. It could've been 11% had I not tried to play guessing games with the market. I'm not that shrewd.

For anyone that cares, 90% of my money is in:

FCNKX (5%)
FSPSX (20%)
FSKAX (15%)
FXAIX (60%)

10% of my money is what I play with, and it has not done better than how a buy and hold strategy would have done. It's up 64% over the last 2 decades. The S&P500 is up 320%.

[Bimmer Nerd]

Originally Posted by corn18

How will you know when to get back in? You have to be right twice.

Will I time the market perfectly enough where I get in at the ultimate bottom? Probably not.

However, once we start seeing another correction, I'll start Dollar Cost Averaging.

[premier3is]

Originally Posted by Bimmer Nerd

14.7% unemployment - *We did better than 15% estimated*

Green day!

Gotta love America

Only here will you see such bullshit.

At this point the higher the unemployment rate gets + worsening job reports we see, we'll keep seeing the market moving up.

Has to be the most idiotic thing I've ever seen. Fuck it, let's all hope for a 25-50% unemployment rate so we can have the markets hit all time highs!!!

[Zara]

The stock market is not the economy.

[premier3is]

Originally Posted by Zara

The stock market is not the economy.

I knew someone here would say that. We get it, "it's not the economy".

I'm generally concerned people do not understand basic economics and how there is a correlation between the stock market and economic conditions when I see comments like that.

Long term economic growth will usually benefit stocks and in contrast if the economy is forecasted to enter a recession the market will generally fall...

the one figure alone, a 14.7% unemployment rate really leads me to believe we are in poor economic conditions and the stock market has no business moving this way, prove me wrong (and don't say the market is proving me wrong).

[corn18]

What does it really matter? The market will do whatever the market does and I defy anyone to tell me what that will be over the next day, week, month or year. Nobody knows anything but they sure like to talk a lot.

The economy, on the other hand, seems to be more predictable and 14% unemployment is really bad. If the consumer doesn't consume, our economy recesses or even depresses. Pretty simple formula, really.

What the market does in response to that is anyone's guess.

[Zara]

Originally Posted by premier3is

I knew someone here would say that. We get it, "it's not the economy".

I'm generally concerned people do not understand basic economics and how there is a correlation between the stock market and economic conditions when I see comments like that.

Long term economic growth will usually benefit stocks and in contrast if the economy is forecasted to enter a recession the market will generally fall...

the one figure alone, a 14.7% unemployment rate really leads me to believe we are in poor economic conditions and the stock market has no business moving this way, prove me wrong (and don't say the market is proving me wrong).

I'm not saying there is no correlation. I'm saying that the stock market and the economy are not the same thing. There's a lot of different things that affect stocks other than just economics

For example, China's GDP was growing 6% annually, yet their stock market has remained at the same levels it was 10 years ago.

The stock market moves because of liquidity. Headlines move the market short term and we have seen a lot of money pulled out of the market. But there is still a lot of money being put back into the stocks (The Fed, Hedge Funds, Investors buying these low prices, Pension funds.. the list goes on).

I also think that a lot of people knew back in March that the government can't keep a nation on lock down for such a long time and in 2 months or so would be forced to reopen.

Originally Posted by Zara

I'm not saying there is no correlation. I'm saying that the stock market and the economy are not the same thing. There's a lot of different things that affect stocks other than just economics

Pretty much...and given that every reaction in the market is an overreaction, you can expect stocks to keep rising during this bounce; however long it decides to run. That's mostly because news that has hit the headlines is mostly "good" news; employees getting furloughed within businesses that can't stay open? That's good news. Progress with quicker testing and possible vaccine trials? That's good news. Everything else has already been priced in...until it's not.

[BimmerDimmer6]

Trump: "we're going to come roaring back, like you've never seen before, the market is actually up today, did you see that?"

*Sells everything

[MisterF80M3]

BA looks ready to roll over..

[BMW F22]

Market was wtf today. Up up up and then boom, down 450 points. It’s way too volatile for my taste hence been holding back on further investment.

[Littlebear]

Medical & health

[MisterF80M3]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Market was wtf today. Up up up and then boom, down 450 points. It’s way too volatile for my taste hence been holding back on further investment.

Same. Only playing around with 20% and holding 80% cash.

Originally Posted by Littlebear

Medical & health

Pharmaceuticals have been ripping. I got in VRTX and CODX last week. Sold CODX in the morning today, still holding VRTX.

[VeloF1]

Don’t ask car guys. They make the worst investments on record.

[NemesisX]

Originally Posted by MisterF80M3

Same. Only playing around with 20% and holding 80% cash.



Pharmaceuticals have been ripping. I got in VRTX and CODX last week. Sold CODX in the morning today, still holding VRTX.

80% of your play money or 80% of your entire liquid assets?

[MisterF80M3]

Originally Posted by NemesisX

80% of your play money or 80% of your entire liquid assets?

80% of my play money for stocks.

[NeverL8]

What you guys think about VTIQ ?

I got in at $20...short/long term profit?