[BimmerDom]

Finally the mainstream media is starting to wake up!!! Even the left-wing BBC!!!

What happened to global warming?

By Paul Hudson
Climate correspondent, BBC News

Average temperatures have not increased for over a decade

This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

So what on Earth is going on?

Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.

They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?

During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.
The Sun (BBC)
Recent research has ruled out solar influences on temperature increases

Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.

But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.

The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.

And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.

He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.

If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.

Ocean cycles

What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.

Pacific ocean (BBC)
In the last few years [the Pacific Ocean] has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down

According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.

The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.

So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."

So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.

They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.

But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.

The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.

In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.

In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.

What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.

To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.
Iceberg melting (BBC)
The UK Met Office says that warming is set to resume

Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.

But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.

So what can we expect in the next few years?

Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.

It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).

Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.

One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm

[FStop7]

Carbon credits - 1/2 off

[BimmerDom]

Originally Posted by FStop7

Carbon credits - 1/2 off

Exactly, that's the crazy part, the Global Warming lobby has been pressuring government with Cap&Trade and Carbon credits for years.... to who's benefit??? It's a giant scam that will put Y2K to shame.

People need to wake up and take notice.

[Couch]

Note: It's not called Global Warming anymore, it's called Climate Change.

[BimmerDom]

Originally Posted by Couch

Note: It's not called Global Warming anymore, it's called Climate Change.

Yeah - How convenient to call it climate change

That's why they now call it climate change so people can't dispute it either way


The notion of "Climate Change" as a scientific theory is BS, simply because it breaks the first rule of the principle of theory - it must be falsifiable.
Under Climate Change, the "theory" is always right, it can be colder, hotter, or the same - either way, the theory is right.

Thank Freud for grandfathering this type of stupid Pseudo-science.

Why don't we say that it's God's fault? Who could argue???

[E90SLAM]

Climate Change??? Climate always change in most part of the world....
There's Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter...that's what I call climate change...

damn those tree huggers

[maswastage]

I'm just going to play devil's advocate for a second here: Keep in mind that 10 years is a relatively small time span when compared to the life span of the planet. It doesn't matter if the temperature is slightly lower now than 10 years ago; what matters is the overall trend for the past 200-300 years.

In any case, I think people should worry less about how to make oil burning cleaner and worry more about what we're going to do once the oil runs out, which it inevitably will.

[BimmerDom]

Originally Posted by maswastage

In any case, I think people should worry less about how to make oil burning cleaner and worry more about what we're going to do once the oil runs out, which it inevitably will.

Canada has 2 Trillion barrel of oil, and we haven't started to explore hydrocarbons in the arctic shelf. No worries, we are not running out of oil anytime time soon. Improvements in extraction technologies are happening every day.

The US has abundant supply of oil in shale... again, a technological advance needs to happen - and it will to turn this resource into $$.

Instead of spending all this money to send Carbon credits to other countries, the NAFTA "coalition" should devise a 10-15 year plan for sustainable energy independence - which includes what we have a lot of: OIL! -- this instead of Americans turning to protectionist trade measures to prop up their ailing economy.

[jaiman]

Originally Posted by BimmerDom

Yeah - How convenient to call it climate change

That's why they now call it climate change so people can't dispute it either way


The notion of "Climate Change" as a scientific theory is BS, simply because it breaks the first rule of the principle of theory - it must be falsifiable.
Under Climate Change, the "theory" is always right, it can be colder, hotter, or the same - either way, the theory is right.

Thank Freud for grandfathering this type of stupid Pseudo-science.

Why don't we say that it's God's fault? Who could argue???

The full name is Anthropogenic Climate Change. Anthropogenic meaning caused by humans. Most people who say climate change are, pretty obviously, talking about the man made kind. But I guess its easier to take pot shots at vernacular than to debate the science. Easier, and much less productive.

[BimmerDom]

Originally Posted by jaiman

The full name is Anthropogenic Climate Change. Anthropogenic meaning caused by humans. Most people who say climate change are, pretty obviously, talking about the man made kind. But I guess its easier to take pot shots at vernacular than to debate the science. Easier, and much less productive.

By golly, and just how do you measure Human made Climate Change vs Natural Changes in Climate?

If you want to be productive, get a grip on the definition of Scientific Theory and then get back to us


by historical standards, the earth is quite cool...

[jaiman]

Originally Posted by BimmerDom

By golly, and just how do you measure Human made Climate Change vs Natural Changes in Climate?

If you want to be productive, get a grip on the definition of Scientific Theory and then get back to us

Nice! More glibness.

I'm not really looking to debate the science, just pointing out that you can probably make a better argument than attacking the popular vernacular.

[BimmerDom]

And to most people who think "Who Cares", just understand that a Cap & Trade as under discussion in the US will generate $366Billion/year according the recent MIT study.

$366Billion per year for what?? Shaky pseudo science.
Who stands to benefit?? Ask yourself this question.

A hypocrite like Al Gore and his Private Jet and 20,000sf home?


We need to have a debate about the Science behind this scheme

[maswastage]

Originally Posted by BimmerDom

Canada has 2 Trillion barrel of oil, and we haven't started to explore hydrocarbons in the arctic shelf. No worries, we are not running out of oil anytime time soon. Improvements in extraction technologies are happening every day.

The US has abundant supply of oil in shale... again, a technological advance needs to happen - and it will to turn this resource into $$.

Instead of spending all this money to send Carbon credits to other countries, the NAFTA "coalition" should devise a 10-15 year plan for sustainable energy independence - which includes what we have a lot of: OIL! -- this instead of Americans turning to protectionist trade measures to prop up their ailing economy.

I've heard estimates ranging from 50 years to 500 years until the oil supply runs dry. I'm inclined to believe the true mark is closer to 500 years, but in any case all I'm saying is that oil won't last forever. So instead of worrying so much about how burning oil is affecting our climate, we should be worrying more about developing renewable energy. If not for our own sake, at least for our descendants' sake.

[Blake]

global warming happens every year around may in the northern hemisphere

[sayemthree]

one study now says the Ice age is coming back. fire up those CO2 engines!!!!

[E90SLAM]

Originally Posted by Blake

global warming happens every year around may in the northern hemisphere

Originally Posted by sayemthree

one study now says the Ice age is coming back. fire up those CO2 engines!!!!

VROOOM!!!! VROOM!!!

[BimmerDom]

Originally Posted by sayemthree

one study now says the Ice age is coming back. fire up those CO2 engines!!!!

As of September 12 2009, the surface of the Arctic sea ice pack was 5.1 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles), its smallest point of the year.

At the peak of the summer 2007 melt the Arctic sea ice pack measured 4.1 million square kilometers -- a record low -- while the following year at the lowest point it measured 4.5 million square kilometers."


In other words, it has increased in size 1.0 million square kilometers or almost 25% in just two years.

Funny, CO2 hasn't gone down....

When Ice pack goes down by 25%, the enviro-Nazis freak out, when the opposite happens, they go hush

[jpsum]

the climate changes everytime I let off a slient one. It's true.

[Kroy]