[BMWSOZE]

Until an electric car can get a 400 mile charge averaging at least 45-55 mph+ and not having to worry about the fear of not having a charging station if your in the boonies I imagine most would pass. Makes a decent "around town" car until then to roll out in. When the changes above I stated do happen, I'm sure the cost of electric will be substantially higher supply and demand style

[Efthreeoh]

So I did a bit more digging into the total cost of ownership numbers. According to Tesla's website, service is required yearly or every 12,500 miles, which ever comes first. The service visit is $600 every 12,500 miles, or a bit less if you pre-pay for service at a 4-year 50,000 mile plan the price is $1,900. Moreover, Tesla can't state how long a battery will last, but it does offer a pre-purchase battery plan that pays for a battery replacement after the 8-year 100,000 mile mark, so apparently Tesla thinks the lifetime of a battery is just 100,000 miles. The replacement cost for the 60KWh battery is $10,000.

Viewed from a cost-competitive point, this car has fail all over it.

[freshwhite335]

my father is really considering one. Would keep his E39 M5 though.

[hyper1]

Originally Posted by StevenY.

Tesla S seems like it would be cool to own but definitely would miss the sound of a nice engine.

A1

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

So I did a bit more digging into the total cost of ownership numbers. According to Tesla's website, service is required yearly or every 12,500 miles, which ever comes first. The service visit is $600 every 12,500 miles, or a bit less if you pre-pay for service at a 4-year 50,000 mile plan the price is $1,900. Moreover, Tesla can't state how long a battery will last, but it does offer a pre-purchase battery plan that pays for a battery replacement after the 8-year 100,000 mile mark, so apparently Tesla thinks the lifetime of a battery is just 100,000 miles. The replacement cost for the 60KWh battery is $10,000.

Viewed from a cost-competitive point, this car has fail all over it.

You have to think economies of scale and advances in production over the next 8-10 years. The battery pack may cost $10,000 to replace NOW, but in 8-10 years time when they'll need replacing, I'd venture they'll cost 1/5th of that. Right now, all the car companies are importing their batteries. Supposedly a factory will be opening up on the east cost, or near-about, and in a year or two that should drastically reduce the cost of production.

I for one love the EV car movement. I currently drive a Volt on a 33-mile roundtrip to-from work. Our electric rates are some of the cheapest in the country at 7.5 cents per kWh. My daily commute costs 60 cents, and that's when I can't charge for free at work. The car costs me $212 a month on the lease, with about 4k of positive equity from my trade. It saves me over that in fuel each month. It'll pay me back for the equity trade in the first 1.5 years.

Tesla makes expensive cars because they can sell fewer and have high profit margins. They'll use this success to build a base and launch into more economic consumer cars. Unlike the bigger companies they have ventured into Electric, Tesla can't afford to sell cars at a loss, because they don't have a full line of ICE cars to keep them covered. The Prius, Leaf, and Volt were all sold at losses in their early years (the Leaf and Volt still are as they are still newer). Toyota makes money on the Prius now, but it took time for people to adopt and the economies of scale to take effect.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by son_of_siggy

You have to think economies of scale and advances in production over the next 8-10 years. The battery pack may cost $10,000 to replace NOW, but in 8-10 years time when they'll need replacing, I'd venture they'll cost 1/5th of that. Right now, all the car companies are importing their batteries. Supposedly a factory will be opening up on the east cost, or near-about, and in a year or two that should drastically reduce the cost of production.

I for one love the EV car movement. I currently drive a Volt on a 33-mile roundtrip to-from work. Our electric rates are some of the cheapest in the country at 7.5 cents per kWh. My daily commute costs 60 cents, and that's when I can't charge for free at work. The car costs me $212 a month on the lease, with about 4k of positive equity from my trade. It saves me over that in fuel each month. It'll pay me back for the equity trade in the first 1.5 years.

Tesla makes expensive cars because they can sell fewer and have high profit margins. They'll use this success to build a base and launch into more economic consumer cars. Unlike the bigger companies they have ventured into Electric, Tesla can't afford to sell cars at a loss, because they don't have a full line of ICE cars to keep them covered. The Prius, Leaf, and Volt were all sold at losses in their early years (the Leaf and Volt still are as they are still newer). Toyota makes money on the Prius now, but it took time for people to adopt and the economies of scale to take effect.

The Tesla company is not yet making a profit. It has not sold enough cars to recoup the initial investment. It will need 100s of millions to stay afloat until battery costs come way down as you think they will. If you study the industry successful startup auto companies sold cars to the masses; not just the Rich.

The Volt is a great car BTW, but is not a range~limited electric like the tesla.

[pdr1269]

I'd get one for the wife if I had the $

[UAxDEATH(NYC)]

If there wouldn't be a wait time, I'd took one, my daily driving range from 70 to 150 miles. BMW is kinda expensive for it.

[alexwhittemore]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

The Tesla company is not yet making a profit. It has not sold enough cars to recoup the initial investment. It will need 100s of millions to stay afloat until battery costs come way down as you think they will. If you study the industry successful startup auto companies sold cars to the masses; not just the Rich.

The Volt is a great car BTW, but is not a range~limited electric like the tesla.

Tesla just had a cash-flow-positive month for the first time, so they're somewhere just around the turning point there: http://www.autoblog.com/2012/12/05/m...sla-last-week/

Their business model is working, slowly but surely. And Elon only took Tesla public so early so that he could free up his personal investment in it to throw cash at SpaceX. The plan was never to be cash positive any faster than this.

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

The Tesla company is not yet making a profit. It has not sold enough cars to recoup the initial investment. It will need 100s of millions to stay afloat until battery costs come way down as you think they will. If you study the industry successful startup auto companies sold cars to the masses; not just the Rich.

The Volt is a great car BTW, but is not a range~limited electric like the tesla.

As pointed out, Tesla is making its way into profit. You can't compare this type of endeavor to other successful automakers, as it's not apples to apples. If Tesla was another ICE-car builder, then yes, you could make the comparison. But they're not. A better comparison would be when people went from horses to cars, where only the wealthier could afford the automobile.

As I said, other companies that have gone down this route had the bulk of their business coming from their standard ICE-car sales, so they could make more affordable cars. Tesla didn't have that luxury, and had little interest building ICE-cars in order to build a base. There is simply a bigger profit margin, per car, in a luxury vehicle.

I agree that the Volt is an awesome car. The range-extending generator is handy, though I don't use it that often. Once the infrastructure exists, and technology catches up, you'll be able to charge much quicker than today. Tesla has chargers that will give you the full 260-300 miles back in about an hour.

Yes, people who are driving cross-country may still have an issue for another 5-10 years. But the majority of drivers don't use their vehicles like that. Buying with that sole focus is kind of like buying a 1-ton pickup for the 1-2 times you're going to haul something.

Personally, I hope to always have an electric, and ICE vehicle in the garage, for different purposes.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by son_of_siggy

As pointed out, Tesla is making its way into profit. You can't compare this type of endeavor to other successful automakers, as it's not apples to apples. If Tesla was another ICE-car builder, then yes, you could make the comparison. But they're not. A better comparison would be when people went from horses to cars, where only the wealthier could afford the automobile.

As I said, other companies that have gone down this route had the bulk of their business coming from their standard ICE-car sales, so they could make more affordable cars. Tesla didn't have that luxury, and had little interest building ICE-cars in order to build a base. There is simply a bigger profit margin, per car, in a luxury vehicle.

I agree that the Volt is an awesome car. The range-extending generator is handy, though I don't use it that often. Once the infrastructure exists, and technology catches up, you'll be able to charge much quicker than today. Tesla has chargers that will give you the full 260-300 miles back in about an hour.

Yes, people who are driving cross-country may still have an issue for another 5-10 years. But the majority of drivers don't use their vehicles like that. Buying with that sole focus is kind of like buying a 1-ton pickup for the 1-2 times you're going to haul something.

Personally, I hope to always have an electric, and ICE vehicle in the garage, for different purposes.

I'm not going to take one month of being "cash positive" as proof that Tesla will be financially successful in the future or that their business model is sound. The reason Henry Ford was finally successful was he was selling better technology to a large mass of society who could afford his product. Tesla is selling a product that is not technologically better and is expensive in initial cost, operating cost, and does not offer equivelent usability. The total ownership cost does not compete with ICE powered automobiles when you consider selling a BEV that the majority of the public can purchase.

From what I can gather from Tesla's website, the best recovery charge rate is about 130 miles in just over an hour, not 300. Also, this car cannot be used for a roadtrip, such as many people take, for sightseeing because there is just too much physical area of the country to cover with Tesla "supercharging" stations. People who don't buy $100K sport sedans do those kind of things.

Also, from what I can tell is Tesla is asking it's customers to finance the company with pre-paid battery replacements and pre-paid yearly maintenance packages.

[son_of_siggy]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Also, from what I can tell is Tesla is asking it's customers to finance the company with pre-paid battery replacements and pre-paid yearly maintenance packages.

Yeah, what kind of company offers pre-paid maintenance packages?!

The Tesla supercharger will recharge 150 miles in 30 minutes, or the equivalent of 300 miles in one hour.

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

I'm not saying your arguments are invalid, I'm saying that with time, they will become less of a concern. You also have to remember that when Henry Ford was selling cars, people also raised similar concerns, as the cars didn't actually go very far, and refueling stations were no where near as prevalent as they are today. People weren't going cross-country by car at that point. Ford was not selling a viable alternative for horse and train travel at that point. He was designing with the future in mind though.

Again, I'm not saying your concerns aren't valid ones, I'm just saying that people said the same thing about ICE, and eventually the technology and infrastructure caught up.

[shah269]

NICE photo shop but the laws of physics are a fucking bitch!
You do know what happens if you let a LiPo out charge right?
And for one of those cars....you are looking at...oh i don't know maybe three weeks?

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by son_of_siggy

Yeah, what kind of company offers pre-paid maintenance packages?!

The Tesla supercharger will recharge 150 miles in 30 minutes, or the equivalent of 300 miles in one hour.

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

I'm not saying your arguments are invalid, I'm saying that with time, they will become less of a concern. You also have to remember that when Henry Ford was selling cars, people also raised similar concerns, as the cars didn't actually go very far, and refueling stations were no where near as prevalent as they are today. People weren't going cross-country by car at that point. Ford was not selling a viable alternative for horse and train travel at that point. He was designing with the future in mind though.

Again, I'm not saying your concerns aren't valid ones, I'm just saying that people said the same thing about ICE, and eventually the technology and infrastructure caught up.

Well actu actually gasoline was sold in drugstores at the time. Also, gosoline has basically has the same energy density for the past hundred years or so. The machinery has become more efficient not the fuel. The point is can Tesla hang around long enough to let the tech catch up and get cheaper.

[alexwhittemore]

Originally Posted by shah269

NICE photo shop but the laws of physics are a fucking bitch!
You do know what happens if you let a LiPo out charge right?
And for one of those cars....you are looking at...oh i don't know maybe three weeks?

For one, 'out charging' isn't a thing, so I'll A. assume you mean 'over charge' and B. not take you too seriously.

We're talking about an 85 kWh battery, and 1C is totally reasonable for lipos. Conservative, even - the problem charging an 85kWh lipo at 1C is that you're talking about 85kW, which is hard for a normal mains system to provide. We'll assume they've overcome that issue, since they get to design the mains system. But in general, 500V/200A is a crapload, but a perfectly valid way to provide 100kW. It's totally doable.

Over charging: you're thinking 90kW, 85kWh battery, I think. 85kW (approx. 90kW) into an 85kWh battery for 30m is a half charge, no over charge here. And for that matter, there are losses associated with charging batteries, 30% for a fast charge. Which, again, isn't what's going on here. 1C into a lipo isn't, by and large, fast, we're just talking about a battery vastly larger than the charging capacity of residential supplies. So this will actually be a relatively efficient charge. Still, at least 10-20% inefficiency, likely more. So I guess we can only assume based on the 150mi statement that they're talking about charge delivered (realized in the battery) rather than shipped (power out of the supercharger)

Anyway, charging works fine, so 150mi range:
It takes something between 20 and 30 horsepower to maintain 60 or 70mph on a compact sports sedan with Cd .30. I'm punting hard on the numbers here, because honestly I don't remember the details of the calculation, but this is coming from my Aero roommate and I calculating horsepower required to maintain 70mph (I believe) on my 328i. Keep in mind the Model S has the lowest Cd of any production car today, .24 stated. So this is conservative. Let's compromise, and say 25 horsepower to keep the S running at 60mph. That's probably fairly conservative, even, I'd imagine the S requires less power to maintain 60.

So 25hp * 750W/hp = 18.75kW. At 60mph, that's 2.5h to get 150mi. 2.5*18.75 = 46.875 kWh to go 150 mi.

If we recall from earlier, 90kW * .5h is 45kWh. So that's right on target.

TL;DR: given some reasonable assumptions, the math works out that a supercharger, as quoted, can add 150mi range to a model S in 30m. Please, leave math to the engineers.

EDIT: Researching what a bunch of EV guys have to say on the matter of power required for X speed, that calculation above is QUITE conservative. Maybe 30% so, so it could well be that 90kW is power delivered, and the charging inefficiency makes up for the difference to get down to 150mi range.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by son_of_siggy

Yeah, what kind of company offers pre-paid maintenance packages?!

The Tesla supercharger will recharge 150 miles in 30 minutes, or the equivalent of 300 miles in one hour.

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

I'm not saying your arguments are invalid, I'm saying that with time, they will become less of a concern. You also have to remember that when Henry Ford was selling cars, people also raised similar concerns, as the cars didn't actually go very far, and refueling stations were no where near as prevalent as they are today. People weren't going cross-country by car at that point. Ford was not selling a viable alternative for horse and train travel at that point. He was designing with the future in mind though.

Again, I'm not saying your concerns aren't valid ones, I'm just saying that people said the same thing about ICE, and eventually the technology and infrastructure caught up.

Well, time is the real issue here isn't it? Just running very crude numbers I don't see where Tesla can survive based on the market sales it can achieve. In 2011 BMW sold a total of 11,300 7-Series cars (from BMW's annual report). Assuming Mercedes and Audi sell a relatively equivalent number of S-Classes and A8's, the total sales market for the Tesla's class is on the order of 35,000 cars. Say, just for discussion sake, Tesla steals 30% of those sales, that’s 10,500 cars. Say Tesla makes $10,000 profit per car, that's $105 Million dollars. Saying Tesla will steal 30% of its market sales is highly doubtful, saying it will make $10K per sale profit is highly doubtful as well. Those are generous gesstimates.

Considering it takes every other manufacturer nearly a Billion dollars or more to launch a new ICE model (and that is with using shared infrastructure/resources of engineering, manufacturing, common parts, and suppliers, etc.) I just don't see where Tesla has that kind of cash and investment to survive long term. $105M doesn't go very far in the auto industry. Then, add in it is going to build its own fueling stations and give away the electricity for free, the picture to me is even less viable.

Just my two cents...