[Canuck335]

Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier

There IS room in the marketplace for both ICE and EVs. The sad thing is many countries are dead set on banishing ICE from the roadways. I believe these countries would eventually not allow anyone to even turn on an an ICE and deem these vehicles as only appropriate for static museum display.

I think it’s more like governments see the market forces at play.
Within the next 5 years it’ll be cheaper to own and operate a BEV, so it’s easy pickings for these types of policies.

There’s going be the “pry my ICE from my cold dead hands” types but the majority of people will just be driven by economic arguments and will buy a BEV.

[Dog Face Pony Soldier]

Originally Posted by Canuck335

I think it's more like governments see the market forces at play.
Within the next 5 years it'll be cheaper to own and operate a BEV, so it's easy pickings for these types of policies.

There's going be the "pry my ICE from my cold dead hands" types but the majority of people will just be driven by economic arguments and will buy a BEV.

Sounds like the perspective of someone with zero idea what it's like to only use on-street parking. EVs are simply unbelievably inconvenient if not impossible for tens of millions of Americans to own. Then again we usually have the EV advocates shrug and essentially say "too bad" or "deal with it" when I bring up this fact.

[Canuck335]

Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier

Sounds like the perspective of someone with zero idea what it's like to only use on-street parking. EVs are simply unbelievably inconvenient if not impossible for tens of millions of Americans to own. Then again we usually have the EV advocates shrug and essentially say "too bad" or "deal with it" when I bring up this fact.

I think this is the difference between living in the present vs seeing the likely future.
Please don’t take this personally. I understand some people just can’t or won’t see what’s coming down the pike.

- Cities will start modifying light poles to enable on street charging
- Battery and charging technology will advance to the point where a $30k BEV can be 80-100% charged in an hour or so.
- Fewer cars in general will be sold, taken over by ride sharing. So the hassle of charging will be someone else’s concern.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier

Sounds like the perspective of someone with zero idea what it's like to only use on-street parking. EVs are simply unbelievably inconvenient if not impossible for tens of millions of Americans to own. Then again we usually have the EV advocates shrug and essentially say "too bad" or "deal with it" when I bring up this fact.

These are all problems that can be solved. It is just a matter of having the will to solve them...

For instance, in Philadelphia where I live we run electric on poles that run down streets above ground.

Such as shown here in Google Street View.



We can vastly improve our EV charging availability by building and connecting EV charging directly to the overhead wires on the same poles that they are already being held up by. This can be achieved by requiring the electric utility to build these since they own the poles and power and allow them to sell the power on it.

These will be solved in time. But you need to have the cars and demand to facilitate the changes.

[Tacoma]

Originally Posted by Canuck335

I think this is the difference between living in the present vs seeing the likely future.
Please don’t take this personally. I understand some people just can’t or won’t see what’s coming down the pike.

- Cities will start modifying light poles to enable on street charging
- Battery and charging technology will advance to the point where a $30k BEV can be 80-100% charged in an hour or so.
- Fewer cars in general will be sold, taken over by ride sharing. So the hassle of charging will be someone else’s concern.

Agree. Also, here in Toronto, some shopping centre parking are already set up to charge (I think set up by Tesla?). I imagine this will be vastly expanded with the governments involved and, say, in about 10-15 years time from now, you can pretty well charge your vehicle anywhere you go and park.

By that time as well, street parking charging will also likely be in play. Chargers could reside where the old parking meters were and they can easily be configured to pay for parking as well! The electrical infrastructure is already in place since street lights need electricity, so it's a matter of possibly tapping into that.

Whatever the case, the technology already exists to do that today, certainly 10+ years from today.

[Dog Face Pony Soldier]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

These are all problems that can be solved. It is just a matter of having the will to solve them...

For instance, in Philadelphia where I live we run electric on poles that run down streets above ground.

Such as shown here in Google Street View.

Attachment 2546951

We can vastly improve our EV charging availability by building and connecting EV charging directly to the overhead wires on the same poles that they are already being held up by. This can be achieved by requiring the electric utility to build these since they own the poles and power and allow them to sell the power on it.

These will be solved in time. But you need to have the cars and demand to facilitate the changes.

There's that "deal with it" attitude I mentioned, except it's re-phrased on the belief in some technology that either doesn't exist, or hasn't ever been implemented on any grand scale yet. The selfishness and arrogance is disgusting IMO. There's millions and millions of people that would be negatively impacted by getting pushed into a new and expensive technology.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier

There's that "deal with it" attitude I mentioned, except it's re-phrased on the belief in some technology that either doesn't exist, or hasn't ever been implemented on any grand scale yet. The selfishness and arrogance is disgusting IMO. There's millions and millions of people that would be negatively impacted by getting pushed into a new and expensive technology.

Huh? I am very confused by your comment as it doesn't align with my post at all. Maybe a misquote?

If it wasn't. What do you mean by people being negatively impacted and forced into new and expensive technology?

Currently, it EV technology can be cheaper than ICE depending on incentives. My 530e was cheaper than a 530i by almost $6K due to Federal EV Tax Rebate. That doesn't include some state incentives like NJ where EVs aren't subject to sales tax either. This is all in 2021 where it isn't always true that the EV is more expensive. But this varies by vehicle and by individual consumer reality (not all buyers can fully take advantage of the tax credit and not all live in NJ etc). This is all top line costs we're discussing here which excludes stuff like reduced brake wear due to regenerative braking and etc to help soften ongoing maintenance costs.

Even with all of the above being said. New car buyers are a smaller subset fo the market. The majority of car buyers are buying used cars which are in no way affected by these changes (at least in the US). The constitution protects cars that were legal on the day they were sold so you'll see ICE cars in the used market for many years to come and they'll still be very affordable for those buying used cars in all forms for many years to come as well.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by LogicalApex

Huh? I am very confused by your comment as it doesn't align with my post at all. Maybe a misquote?

If it wasn't. What do you mean by people being negatively impacted and forced into new and expensive technology?

Currently, it EV technology can be cheaper than ICE depending on incentives. My 530e was cheaper than a 530i by almost $6K due to Federal EV Tax Rebate. That doesn't include some state incentives like NJ where EVs aren't subject to sales tax either. This is all in 2021 where it isn't always true that the EV is more expensive. But this varies by vehicle and by individual consumer reality (not all buyers can fully take advantage of the tax credit and not all live in NJ etc). This is all top line costs we're discussing here which excludes stuff like reduced brake wear due to regenerative braking and etc to help soften ongoing maintenance costs.

Even with all of the above being said. New car buyers are a smaller subset fo the market. The majority of car buyers are buying used cars which are in no way affected by these changes (at least in the US). The constitution protects cars that were legal on the day they were sold so you'll see ICE cars in the used market for many years to come and they'll still be very affordable for those buying used cars in all forms for many years to come as well.

It's not reality using a 5-series ICE vs. EV for a cost comparison. First off a 5-series is more than $20K above the average price of a new car (US market) @ $40K. The incentives on the EV are subsidizing the price with imaginary dollars that are just added to the national debt, which has to be paid back eventually. EV tech cost gets equivalent to ICE at least a decade from now if not longer unless gasoline is artificially increased in price, which is easily done with the stroke of a pen by an environmentally biased politician.

At this point, any version of a Honda Accord is far less expensive to operate in lifecycle dollars than ICE. $20K of gasoline buys 240,000 miles of transportation at current gas prices for a 30 MPG car. That's 20 years of driving. The EV payback is not even close.

What Dog Face is discussing is, should gasoline prices be drastically increased artificially, it will force people into EV who can't afford it both convenience wise and cost wise.

[Alfisti]

That's the truth though no one wants to admit it. batteries are extremely expensive and they are unlikely to get much cheaper as the material needed to make them is extremely difficult to find and produce.

[LogicalApex]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

It's not reality using a 5-series ICE vs. EV for a cost comparison. First off a 5-series is more than $20K above the average price of a new car (US market) @ $40K. The incentives on the EV are subsidizing the price with imaginary dollars that are just added to the national debt, which has to be paid back eventually. EV tech cost gets equivalent to ICE at least a decade from now if not longer unless gasoline is artificially increased in price, which is easily done with the stroke of a pen by an environmentally biased politician.

At this point, any version of a Honda Accord is far less expensive to operate in lifecycle dollars than ICE. $20K of gasoline buys 240,000 miles of transportation at current gas prices for a 30 MPG car. That's 20 years of driving. The EV payback is not even close.

What Dog Face is discussing is, should gasoline prices be drastically increased artificially, it will force people into EV who can't afford it both convenience wise and cost wise.

I used the 5-Series due to us being on a BMW forum. But many states now, including PA, have EV credits that stack on top of the Federal EV tax credit as long as the MSRP of the car is below $50K to ensure that the average car is even more aggressively priced.

But I think your point is just a guess based as the points that are attempting to be made against EVs. Gas prices might be higher in the future, but they might not. EV charging infrastructure might be solved in the future, but it may not...

The argument you're making in terms of "adding to the national debt" are just a soft of a ground to stand on considering the US deeply subsidizes oil costs both in terms of raw dollars and in terms of military and lives. EVs will allow us to be energy independent without needing to expensive military operating to secure our access to oil and etc.

But we're still VERY early on the curve toward EVs. They are still less than 10% of vehicle sales and even if 100% of new cars are EVs by 2035 were' still almost 15 years away from then! There will be a LOT of change and improvements in economic realities, charging infrastructure, battery recycling, and so on.

[David70]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

Some untruths being spoken here, the reasonable among us skeptics are not anti EV for the sake of it. There are two issues at play here,

1) Such short term targets sets by governments and manufacturers, i don't see how on EARTH you could ban ICE sales in less than 9 years, i just cannot see it.

2) Charging, people focus on range but the issue is charging. Until this is resolved there will be a need for an alternative which is NOT what is being communicated, the communication is EV or bust by 2030ish.

I will also add that an EV is more hassle for me than an ICE. I have two cars, one garage so one lives outside, my charger would be near the front of the house or in the garage and because of the charging issue I would need to top up EVERY DAMN NIGHT. So in the morning, minus 30, i am out there unrolling an icy cord and every night i have to trudge in and plug it in again. It's just a headache vs filling up once every two weeks.

it all comes back to charging, if we can charge in 5 minutes, game changer, until then, prodominately 2nd cars ina family for pure EV.

You would have to top up the EV every night compared to filling up the ICE every two weeks? Not following how this range works out. Plenty of people talk about the cases it won't work for them but the average driver drives about 231 miles per week (231x52=12,000) - nowhere close to charging every night.

Originally Posted by Canuck335

I think it’s more like governments see the market forces at play.
Within the next 5 years it’ll be cheaper to own and operate a BEV, so it’s easy pickings for these types of policies.

There’s going be the “pry my ICE from my cold dead hands” types but the majority of people will just be driven by economic arguments and will buy a BEV.

Agree, get the cost of ownership for the EV to be lower than the ICE (initial purchase, maintenance, repair, depreciation) and customers will follow. Huge part of the population looks at their car as only a way to get them from point A to point B. Keep the features, significantly lower the cost and people will buy it.

Complaints here about the bans coming from a couple of states/countries for new ICE sales but the manufacturers are promising to drop off far faster than the bans. None of this happens overnight and yes things will need to change over time.