[Vanity]

Market priced in the failure of super committee today. Rest of week will be a slew of GDP, PMI, and FOMC releases. Should be good news. Europe seems on a leash for the rest of week as more discussions of reforms will take place.

Stocks were too good to pass up today after the bottom out of the market. Jumped out of shorts and road some longs up. It's a bargain at these prices. Good time to buy now and sell in a week or two when they regain 20%+. Year end rally will still happen, Santa never forgets about Wall Street

Deficit deal not passing today was not as big a problem as media made it out to be. Debt to GDP ratio forecasted for 90% in next couple years, so deficit cuts of $1.2 trillion would have been useless anyways when implemented in 2013. This was just show, folks. Campaign politics fodder. What we really need in 2013 is anywhere from $4-5 trillion in budget rebalance. Spending cuts won't save us. Tax increase is needed. Both parties knew this. Media over hyped, but hey, good deals came out today


New Trading ranges: 1180-1220.
Support levels: 1187 (next one down, if we decline tomorrow).
Lowest level: 1165. Doubt we will hit here though.

Most likely a rally up back to 1220 to see what happens in Europe.

[MEMMEZZ]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Market priced in the failure of super committee today. Rest of week will be a slew of GDP, PMI, and FOMC releases. Should be good news. Europe seems on a leash for the rest of week as more discussions of reforms will take place.

Stocks were too good to pass up today after the bottom out of the market. Jumped out of shorts and road some longs up. It's a bargain at these prices. Good time to buy now and sell in a week or two when they regain 20%+. Year end rally will still happen, Santa never forgets about Wall Street

Deficit deal not passing today was not as big a problem as media made it out to be. Debt to GDP ratio forecasted for 90% in next couple years, so deficit cuts of $1.2 trillion would have been useless anyways when implemented in 2013. This was just show, folks. Campaign politics fodder. What we really need in 2013 is anywhere from $4-5 trillion in budget rebalance. Spending cuts won't save us. Tax increase is needed. Both parties knew this. Media over hyped, but hey, good deals came out today


New Trading ranges: 1180-1220.
Support levels: 1187 (next one down, if we decline tomorrow).
Lowest level: 1165. Doubt we will hit here though.

Most likely a rally up back to 1220 to see what happens in Europe.

Awesome insight! Keep it coming

[slamako]

Our technical analysis also suggested a "buy" signal.
I moved out of SQQQ, TZA and moving to TQQQ, TNA.

Thanks everybody for their insight on my previous post.

Originally Posted by Vanity

Market priced in the failure of super committee today. Rest of week will be a slew of GDP, PMI, and FOMC releases. Should be good news. Europe seems on a leash for the rest of week as more discussions of reforms will take place.

Stocks were too good to pass up today after the bottom out of the market. Jumped out of shorts and road some longs up. It's a bargain at these prices. Good time to buy now and sell in a week or two when they regain 20%+. Year end rally will still happen, Santa never forgets about Wall Street

Deficit deal not passing today was not as big a problem as media made it out to be. Debt to GDP ratio forecasted for 90% in next couple years, so deficit cuts of $1.2 trillion would have been useless anyways when implemented in 2013. This was just show, folks. Campaign politics fodder. What we really need in 2013 is anywhere from $4-5 trillion in budget rebalance. Spending cuts won't save us. Tax increase is needed. Both parties knew this. Media over hyped, but hey, good deals came out today


New Trading ranges: 1180-1220.
Support levels: 1187 (next one down, if we decline tomorrow).
Lowest level: 1165. Doubt we will hit here though.

Most likely a rally up back to 1220 to see what happens in Europe.

[mact3333]

end of day volume charts showed selling control which implied more selling today..we got selling but its starting to exhaust itself.

I like metals and miners here...swing lows looking likely for metal plays...dollar looks like a swing high soon.

Thanksgiving usually positive on light volume.

Saw 5 waves down to complete this wave down and TRIN touched between 4-5 yesterday ....so counter trend rally should take place soon.

[Vanity]

Looks like market wants even better deals. Sell offs for another day I suppose. It's getting to the point where things are just too good to pass up. Im holding on to MS right now since it has 20% upside. Could have gotten it lower today but grrr! Haha

Looks like markets wanted to test 1180 today. Didn't break it. Thanksgiving rally ought to start now unless some macro headline gets spat out from EU.

[mact3333]

How funny, metals showing 1,2,3 reversal pattern based on no news.

Now IMF announces more inflationary "free money" program....

The powers that be always know first...volume and patterns tell the story before there is a story....

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by mact3333

How funny, metals showing 1,2,3 reversal pattern based on no news.

Now IMF announces more inflationary "free money" program....

The powers that be always know first...volume and patterns tell the story before there is a story....

+1 for truth

[Vanity]

Update:

I said before the trading range was going to be bound between 1180-1220, with a likely rally occuring soon to relief the over-sold status. But, this is just something to keep in mind, if we break 1180 and hit 1165, expect us to begin retesting October lows (1074 on SPX) on the markets. October would have been a bounce on the way down instead of an indication of a year-end rally.

I'm still expecting some sort of relief rally (mini or large), though the time forecast is bound within a week here. Most likely situation is we have a "dead-cat bounce" rally, then we chop lower. Interbank lending in Europe froze today. ECB now only lender of money to Banks -- don't even talk about sovereign debt. Might finally see that French downgrade soon. Perfect timing would be after a rally. So I'm expecting downgrade soon. But it will be interesting to see if this projection has been kicked down the road 6 months. IMF lending program started today will give access to 500% - 1000% rapid lending of nation's borrowing quotas. They're doing this to insulate the markets from shock for about 6 months, we will see it being tested thorougly when they finally decide who does and doesn't qualify.

What are everyone else's Intermediate Trend bottoms? Mact?

[mact3333]

support at 1163-5 ES...I think counter trend bullish for next week followed by more selling.

But as noted last week, no heavy long positions below 1220 level, which is KEY...long positions now are just playing counter trend bounce so play small if long.

If mkts accept prices below 1050 in the future, our way of life could change as it implies something very nasty.

[MEMMEZZ]

***Of course i am just an amateur and these are my observations and not skilled predictions like Vanity and Mact (IMO).

Aside from the low of 1163.79, it seems that 1165 level has been tested a few times today and showed some little support with a small bounce back from those lows. Assuming we dont break 1165 by the close, would this be consistent with a mini-rally followed by a sell off or just straight downhill from here?

^^EDIT: Gotta wait until the close to have any foundation for these levels.

Despite all that TA has to offer, it appears for the time being that the markets are completely ignoring TA in favor of headlines. And unless a headline that is fully positive (not even semi-positive seems to suffice) breaks, the markets will not even produce a mini-rally.

Im just curious how you two factor in today into your mini-rally predictions (of roughly one week, next week) and if you guys still stand behind that.

And as Vanity pointed out earlier, the past few months have not been consistent with historical trends at all and that theory was further supported by thanksgiving week's negativity. Do you still see a year-end rally considering that the most bullish short-term prediction is only a very minor rally followed by another sell-off? Where is the time for a year-end rally?

Once again thanks you two for great analysis.
I shouldve been on this thread a long time ago.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

***Of course i am just an amateur and these are my observations and not skilled predictions like Vanity and Mact (IMO).

Aside from the low of 1163.79, it seems that 1165 level has been tested a few times today and showed some little support with a small bounce back from those lows. Assuming we dont break 1165 by the close, would this be consistent with a mini-rally followed by a sell off or just straight downhill from here?

^^EDIT: Gotta wait until the close to have any foundation for these levels.

Despite all that TA has to offer, it appears for the time being that the markets are completely ignoring TA in favor of headlines. And unless a headline that is fully positive (not even semi-positive seems to suffice) breaks, the markets will not even produce a mini-rally.

Im just curious how you two factor in today into your mini-rally predictions (of roughly one week, next week) and if you guys still stand behind that.

And as Vanity pointed out earlier, the past few months have not been consistent with historical trends at all and that theory was further supported by thanksgiving week's negativity. Do you still see a year-end rally considering that the most bullish short-term prediction is only a very minor rally followed by another sell-off? Where is the time for a year-end rally?

Once again thanks you two for great analysis.
I shouldve been on this thread a long time ago.

Lots of question, ones I am trying to answer myself as well.

Crude Oil closed well above it's support levels at around ~$92 - $93. This suggests Crude Oil is having strong support, and Crude Oil usually leads equity markets up or down. In this case, it would suggest a rebound in the markets is more probable soon.

S&P 500, conversely, broke it's support levels at 1165 and closed at 1161.79. The next level down is crucial. If it breaks 1150, this is the nail in the coffin for a full-fledged aggressive Bear testing October lows. I would personally have big shorts to capitalize on the ride down. The profit coming from these shorts should easily erase any losses suffered this Monday-Wednesday in the markets, and then some (depending on how your investments held up this week).


Below 1150: We retest October lows. Levels to follow down would be 1120, then 1100, then an abyss below that. Major rally ought to follow suit after this, as seen in October. Rally might kick in during late Dec or early January instead of December. This rally is going to happen since Europe has not officially burned to smithereens, yet. Unless they do by January, rally after the Oct. low retest should still happen.

Above 1150: We rally to first resistance levels at 1185-1190, then 1200-1205. If we clear 1220, year-end rally is kicked off. If we can't break first 2 resistance levels, we end the mini-rally (as expected) and break below 1150.

Strong sell-off today suggests we will have a sharp-rebound anywhere between the start of next week, or mid next week. 50M volume was logged afterwards, and after-hour markets (as of 2:56 pm PST) suggest there is support for a rally. The expected rebound should give everyone a good exit and entrance positions in and out of their investments for shorts soon. I don't really expect a big rally till after we retest lower lows. Mini-rally theory most likely.


Disclaimer: Fear is unpredictable. The mini-rally may not happen at all, but it is expected to happen based on these indicators. German Bond auctions were a bit over-exaggerated today, imo. 6 out of the last 8 German auctions have yielded a 20% leftover ratio. There has been unbelievable demand into German bonds as a safe-haven for a while now, shooting their yields low. Right now, US bonds > German bonds, hence the unexpected 40% leftover ratio in Germany's auctions today. But it isn't, to me, any indication of Germany being dragged into the morass. Simple supply and demand on their bonds.

EDIT: P.S., light volume typical of these past few weeks has been only of large institutions. There is a big buy-back of shares by their respective companies at these low prices, of which they will likely resell in the the future for a profit in revenue. This gives institutions incentive to let the prices fall lower and lower before a big rally reverses the trend. And these institutions will want to turn a profit on their buy-backs.

Also, markets more likely to test October lows to force out either: 1) QE 3, or 2) ECB unlimited back-stop.

Only those two things can cause a definitive major upward Bull rally.

[mact3333]

2012 will be a year we will all remember...it will bring genuine fear back into the mkts...Greece was about a piddly 100B here and there...Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland will have their days soon enough...they need to refinance 4T over the next few yrs...German bond auction couldnt sell 1/3 ord of the supply last week...hmmm...ECB gonna have to buy these bonds now just like the Fed Reserve doing with the failed US bond auctions..and the largest bank in the US is on the cliff, ready to jump off.

We cannot even agree to reduce our debt by 1.2 T over 10 yrs and most of it was back ended...there will be more money printing this I am sure of...it will come massively in 2012 when we are in a full recession once again...the 2% GDP growth we are seeing is a temporary reprieve...get your house in order cause you prob have 1-2 months left.

One day we will see mom and pop in the streets and it wont be the so called hippies anymore...state and local govts will decrease pension payments and inflation will rise sharply when the money printing takes place again next yr...what we are seeing in europe will come to the US within 1-2 yrs.

Some cycles work I follow still has us making slightly new highs into 1300's before the crash...I place odds of this at 35%...65% chance we already saw the highs near 1285 as the technical damage has been great...if the 35% is correct, no big deal cause upside pretty limited and no harm done.

For ST, we should see a ST bottom within 1-3 days, if we dont, we could see a mini-crash but not likely to happen imho...could see rally up to 1220-50 quickly and I would be a seller at these levels...remember to play small to medium when short cause the short covering rallies can be fierce esp when the govt comes out with hints of QE3...key is to not be fully long in a bear mkt.

The avg investor is too scared to go long right now...when we rally up until Christmas, the avg investor will conjour up enough courage to go long and this will mark a important top...do opposite of what your mind tells you and odds in your favor.

JMHO of course but this is how I see it....btw, when they do finally announce QE3 sometime next yr, might want to buy metals....

[M3Bahn]

Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.
“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ice-warns.html

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by M3Bahn

Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.
The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.
“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ice-warns.html

This is similar to what the U.S is doing with the bank stress tests. It's pre-caution. While there are looming discussions of a euro-break up, the break-up itself would be far more devastating than the ECB just printing money, and would cost a lot more as well. Most likely scenario is we get some form of Bailout from ECB. To my knowledge, I believe England has been trying to roil up everyone in the Euro zone, more nuisance than any help. They're doing it to protect themselves, but also to ensure their trade economy stays intact afterwards. More politics to address the situation publicly and a bit of fear-tactic here.

My personal opinion is that an immediate euro-break up is near impossible, simply because of it's logistics. Places like Italy can't simply convert from Euro dollars to Italian Lira's over night. It takes months to years to convert the entire money supply. And to do this on a broad-scale over all of EU, we're talking re-printing hundreds of trillions of dollars. Bailout in Euro more likely. But this is likely an issue that will keep re-surfacing as we go re-test October lows.

I'm still expecting a relief rally, small or large it will happen. We just had a really good kick-start to the Holiday season. Black Friday seems to have been a success, without question. 10% of sales were online, and online sales rose 20% from previous year. Overall total sales expected to rise 2-4% from last year. Black Friday usually dictates how well Christmas will be (Dec. 15th-25th). Companies make up to 40% of their annual profits in this 10 day window, and Black Friday seems to be a hit this year. This will be a catalyst for a rally, I am expecting.

If it doesn't come at all and I start seeing panic, I'm going to go into Defcon 3 like Mact and arm myself with shorts.

And you must realize, for Britain to be doing this now is a bit late. Asia has already established a firewall to protect themselves from a EU collapse. The biggest banks in the world on Wall Street have all been reducing their Euro-debt exposure, the Fed and America have already begun distancing themselves a collapse as well.

[Vanity]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...ampa-says.html

The International Monetary Fund is preparing a 600-billion euro ($794 billion) loan for Italy

Italy would pay an interest rate of 4 percent to 5 percent on the loan

The money would give Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti 12 to 18 months to implement his reforms without having to refinance the country’s existing debt

and

Black Friday expected 152 million shoppers with 2-4% increase of profits this year. We got 226 million (a record high) and 9.1% sales increase. Last year Black Friday reaped in $45 billion, this year it was $54 billion. The weekly job claims will also be coming out this week as well. It'll be expected to report below 400,000 again. This would be the fourth week it's been reporting below 400k, so the markets ought to take a positive stance on the reports now as they're no longer "anomalies" but a trending pattern.

This week would be a good candidate for a mini-rally.

[MEMMEZZ]

Originally Posted by Vanity

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...ampa-says.html



and

Black Friday expected 152 million shoppers with 2-4% increase of profits this year. We got 226 million (a record high) and 9.1% sales increase. Last year Black Friday reaped in $45 billion, this year it was $54 billion. The weekly job claims will also be coming out this week as well. It'll be expected to report below 400,000 again. This would be the fourth week it's been reporting below 400k, so the markets ought to take a positive stance on the reports now as they're no longer "anomalies" but a trending pattern.

This week would be a good candidate for a mini-rally.

are you going to be holding on to your tvix throughout this mini-rally or will you close (or already closed) your position and wait for the following drop towards october lows?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

are you going to be holding on to your tvix throughout this mini-rally or will you close (or already closed) your position and wait for the following drop towards october lows?

If you look back a few posts, I have already exited my TVIX positions during the big drop last Monday. I am long on MS stock since it hit near 52 week lows in this market last week. I will be looking to exit MS anywhere between 1200-1250, depending on when this rally ends. Tomorrow looks like a big surge.

Afterwards I planned on a EDZ or TZA position to short on the way down. TVIX is no longer a viable short as it is meeting resistance on the VIX index (of which it is based), and VIX future contracts are played on a 30 day basis future. No one is expecting a bad Christmas, yet, which is why he VIX has been remaining so calm and docile in such financial uproar, remaining relatively below 36 throughout an 8% index collapse of the SPX.

[Vanity]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45458635

European shares were called higher Monday morning on hopes that a reported aid package may be available for Italy from the International Monetary Fund and that Europe is stepping up attempts to activate its bail out facility.

The report by Italian newspaper La Stampa that the IMF was preparing an aid package worth up to 600 billion euros ($798 billion) for Italy has been deemed by international finance officials as not credible, according to Dow Jones newswire.

We will now have to wait and see. But this could be a very abrupt hard-turn around and cut the mini-rally short. Likewise, tomorrow would be a good position to exit if one wanted to be cautious. I will be watching closely.


1155 is the 61.8% pull back. 1178-1180 would be the 50% pullback. 1200 would be the 31.8% pullback. The 61.8 % would be the last holding spot before a complete 100% pullback to October lows, thus, the importance after tomorrow...


Edit: looking ahead, Tuesday is when Greece will decidedly be bailed out with the delayed tranche or be sent into default. Seeing as how this is Greece, I'm not surprised the a controversy surrounding the government's lead statistician is now arising tomorrow in a criminal charge. He's alleged to have cooked the books to make Greece seem worse off than it was. His court appearance is Dec. 12th. Dec 9th we have EU summit (important date). Personally, I think Greece is going to get the money and the mini-rally will be sustained. But Greece is so corrupt and messed up, anything could happen.

[Vanity]

Hopefully all of you have been listening and are making a ton of money today. It's seldom we see the spx open near 3% up

[MEMMEZZ]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Hopefully all of you have been listening and are making a ton of money today. It's seldom we see the spx open near 3% up

Im all hears

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

support at 1163-5 ES...I think counter trend bullish for next week followed by more selling.

But as noted last week, no heavy long positions below 1220 level, which is KEY...long positions now are just playing counter trend bounce so play small if long.

If mkts accept prices below 1050 in the future, our way of life could change as it implies something very nasty.

As noted, long for now(modest position since countertrend)...we will rally for abit...will let you guys know when I sell longs.

Bottom was right at 1160ish last week on the nose...

[mact3333]

open gapped couldnt close 50% of the gap within 1st hr....trend day up.