[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by ASAP

What's crazy is that I sat inside this EV a few months ago in their Santa Monica showroom... and ironically, it had a far better interior than a Tesla.

It just goes to show the big hurdle in EV pricing is the battery cost. And everyone thinks the magic solid-state battery will fix that problem. It won't.

[gblansten]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I'm by far not a societal planner, but I would think as houses and population gets denser the need for a long-range EV with good charging network support is of more importance for the buyer, because vehicle use is geared more for long distance oriented for driving out of town for work and for weekends. High density locations where private charging is scarce coincides with a more foot-oriented lifestyle, so cars are used more for pleasure activities. Range limited EV have never made sense to me.

No manufacturer has yet introduced a convertible in the form of the 3-series or Mustang/Camero; sort of a telltale for me. Google for convertible EV and you get a bunch of vaporwear.

Agree with you. There will also be opportunities for condos/apartments to have charging stations. Workplaces have already and will likely in the future provide charging opportunities. There are lots of ways to address charging issues for more densely populated areas. Already many in large cities just rent vehicles ICE or EV when they need them.

[M5Rick]

We now come to the touchy subject if your EV is in a crash and it's not looking good.
For starters no one can touch it until an EV breakdown expert neutralises it then repairers won't know what to do with it and most likely it will be a write off.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

We now come to the touchy subject if your EV is in a crash and it's not looking good.
For starters no one can touch it until an EV breakdown expert neutralises it then repairers won't know what to do with it and most likely it will be a write off.

Reminded me of this Car and Driver article:

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a1...ting-chargers/

[Car-Addicted]

So my tax dollars are used to provide incentives for people to buy EV's.
My fuel taxes are use to maintain the roads that have higher wear due to the increased weight of EV's.
My insurance premiums will rise because damaged EV's are often totaled due to problems and cost of repairing them.
I'm not feeling the whole green thing.

[Cos270]

I think it’s pretty clear, the small demographic of those early adopters is dwindling. Characteristics of said demographic (not all-or-none, but all are traits): able to afford an EV, able to charge said EV at home, willing to sacrifice some usability. From talking to lots of people in the industry (in which I also work), if you don’t meet at least two of these criteria, you likely aren’t buying EVs.

Edit: I should add to the list you also keep an ICE car in the fleet.

[gonzo]

^
Word of the day:
Dwindling

I'd like to see a sales/repeat buyers chart for EV.
Fads?

[David70]

It would make a lot of sense for us to have an EV and an ICE (2 daily driver household wife/me), charge the EV at home all the time, drive EV 70% of total miles. In our case the benefit would be drastically cutting refueling time (just plug in twice a week), far lower amount of maintenance (recently had oil, engine air filter, diff. fluid, transmission fluid, coolant all changed in my ICE), brakes last far longer, very simple powertrain, and reduced fuel cost.

For all of the "never work for "X", people" - ok great, neither will a sedan.

I have a weekend fun car, most of my driving is local, stop light to stop light, commuting and I am fine with an EV. Largest hurdle right now is the initial cost but the differential between an ICE and EV keeps getting smaller.

[David70]

Originally Posted by gonzo

^
Word of the day:
Dwindling

I'd like to see a sales/repeat buyers chart for EV.
Fads?

Actual sales dwindling?



https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-market-share/

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by David70

Actual sales dwindling?

Attachment 3228388

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-market-share/

did anything specific happen in the world between 2020 and 2022?

[David70]

Originally Posted by ASAP

did anything specific happen in the world between 2020 and 2022?

Your point is that the data is wrong? How? It's a 10 year trend line and 2022 was by far the highest point for market share.

[Car-Addicted]

Originally Posted by David70

Your point is that the data is wrong?

Get back to me in two years. Boom followed by Bust.

[KRS_SN]

There is an opportunity though. EV values are taking a pounding. If and it's a big if you want a slightly USED ev as a second car there is a killing to be made.

[M5Rick]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

There is an opportunity though. EV values are taking a pounding. If and it's a big if you want a slightly USED ev as a second car there is a killing to be made.

I'll wait for a Taycan with carbon ceramic brakes, at 4 years old should be around :£7k

[kyriian]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

There is an opportunity though. EV values are taking a pounding. If and it's a big if you want a slightly USED ev as a second car there is a killing to be made.

Pretty much what I am banking on myself, though other than Teslas which I outright refuse to be seen in, there just isn't much options on the used market

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

I'll wait for a Taycan with carbon ceramic brakes, at 4 years old should be around :£7k

27k sounds about right.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by David70

Your point is that the data is wrong? How? It's a 10 year trend line and 2022 was by far the highest point for market share.

Addressing a few of your posts. The trendline is a misrepresentation. In 2010 there were no BEV from mainstream manufacturers, other than the 80-mile Leaf (Dec. 2010). The trendline is global sales, we should be looking at US sales, where BEV have a harder sell do to potential traveling distances, which is where EV sales volume is going to level off at some point.

You are the current typical EV adopter. Dual income or well financed, and keep an ICE in the fleet. Great demographic to be in, but the reality is the market has a huge 2nd tier ownership group that can't afford a 2 or 3 car household, and do not have private overnight charging access. This is why some of us see a plateau for BEV adoption.

[gblansten]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Addressing a few of your posts. The trendline is a misrepresentation. In 2010 there were no BEV from mainstream manufacturers, other than the 80-mile Leaf (Dec. 2010). The trendline is global sales, we should be looking at US sales, where BEV have a harder sell do to potential traveling distances, which is where EV sales volume is going to level off at some point.

You are the current typical EV adopter. Dual income or well financed, and keep an ICE in the fleet. Great demographic to be in, but the reality is the market has a huge 2nd tier ownership group that can't afford a 2 or 3 car household, and do not have private overnight charging access. This is why some of us see a plateau for BEV adoption.

If the market steps up and offers more charging at work and in condos/apartments then I think sales will move forward into more segments. Will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

[David70]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Addressing a few of your posts. The trendline is a misrepresentation. In 2010 there were no BEV from mainstream manufacturers, other than the 80-mile Leaf (Dec. 2010). The trendline is global sales, we should be looking at US sales, where BEV have a harder sell do to potential traveling distances, which is where EV sales volume is going to level off at some point.

You are the current typical EV adopter. Dual income or well financed, and keep an ICE in the fleet. Great demographic to be in, but the reality is the market has a huge 2nd tier ownership group that can't afford a 2 or 3 car household, and do not have private overnight charging access. This is why some of us see a plateau for BEV adoption.

Feel free to remove 2010 from the graph, it's not meaningful

The trendline is global sales, we should be looking at US sales, where BEV have a harder sell do to potential traveling distances, which is where EV sales volume is going to level off at some point.

Global sales compared to U.S, it's a harder sale here than some but also easier sale here than other countries. Large part of the world has little money, lives in high rises, buys the cheapest transportation they can get. What part of our population lives near a city and rarely takes long trips by car? The never ending, "what about me as I regularly drive across the country" makes me laugh.
Tesla has already opened part of their network to other manufacturers, committed to opening 7000 to everyone by the end of 2024. Charging times continue to drop, chargers continue to be built. These reduce the barrier to entry and increase the potential market.

Yes, sales of everything level off at some point, it will happen to EV's, not going out on a limb to predict this. When/what level will this happen?

Yes, well financed people are the first adopters of all new technology. People that bought an EV 10 years ago were really out there as they couldn't drive anywhere. Now we complain about it not being as simple as an ICE.

"2 car family with a home charger" - yes it is the best/easiest option. Reality is we make a long road trip 4-5 times a year. If the price drops enough, charging network grows, charging time continues to drop, dealing with an outside charger 4-5 times a year but never going back to a gas station might be the easier/cheaper solution. Apartment complex near me is advertising EV chargers, they believe this is a benefit worth offering. I have a rental house & just built a garage behind it, am wiring it for 240v & be happy to add an EV charger for the right amount of money (they pay all electric, I would like them to pay for the charger over time but could also see not bothering for the right person)

[kyriian]

Originally Posted by gblansten

If the market steps up and offers more charging at work and in condos/apartments then I think sales will move forward into more segments. Will be interesting to watch how this plays out.

Don't forget other market factors though, namely interest, not everyone can walk into a dealer and plop down 50-70k for a car.
When finance rates are 7-8%, it makes buying a car new or otherwise, a very hard pill to swallow

[David70]

Originally Posted by kyriian

Don't forget other market factors though, namely interest, not everyone can walk into a dealer and plop down 50-70k for a car.
When finance rates are 7-8%, it makes buying a car new or otherwise, a very hard pill to swallow

Average price of all new vehicles is now over $48k and a large part of the U.S. can't and shouldn't be buying a new car. EV's will also be sold on the used market and this market needs to have options for charging.

Lowest price Model 3 after tax credit is $34k? You are welcome to complain about the tax credit but when I buy an EV I will happily take advantage of it, same with every other tax credit I may or may not agree with.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by David70

Average price of all new vehicles is now over $48k and a large part of the U.S. can't and shouldn't be buying a new car. EV's will also be sold on the used market and this market needs to have options for charging.

Lowest price Model 3 after tax credit is $34k? You are welcome to complain about the tax credit but when I buy an EV I will happily take advantage of it, same with every other tax credit I may or may not agree with.

For a 273-mile range, slow, zero options, silver paint and ugly ass wheels Model 3. Get the Model 3 with self driving and real paint and wheels and it's a $52K car (incl. wall charger) with Uncle Sam's tax rebate, which comes later and doesn't reduce the loan payment or tax on the car on the $59K priced car.

It'd be interesting to know how the average $48K retail price is calculated. There are lots of well-equipped Model 3 ICE alternatives for $35K or even less like the Accord, Camry and Altima. The $15K price delta buys 100,000+ miles of gas and maintenance. And they have no range or refueling limitations.