[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

f

Ha, i was never a $TSLA owner other than via index. I don't invest in individual stocks, but I advise a few who enjoy it and, sadly, THEY'RE the ones rolling in $TSLA $$$ having sold at the peak last Jan-Mar, not me!

Anyway, want my new autos recommendation? Who doesn't??

$GM

Good to hear back from you.
I think the will tesla be around in 10 years thread is gone but the 3 and y have arrived since and they're everywhere in the urbanosphere. Round 1 to you.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

Good to hear back from you.
I think the will tesla be around in 10 years thread is gone but the 3 and y have arrived since and they're everywhere in the urbanosphere. Round 1 to you.

LOL, thanks I appreciate you saying that. Quite tricky again to say where Round 2 goes ...

Tesla
They have quite a few risks piling up:

1. Macros: no more ZIRP, QE, M2 supply, Stimulus
2. Segment limited Products: only so many ppl want a compact sedan/SUV that's also BEV, that's also Tesla
3. Reputational Risk: Both because of Musk, but also Chinese associations & dependencies
4. Heavy Capital Outlays w/ no Backstop: leaves them vulnerable to market dips like now
5. Gov't Policy Saturation: BEVs had favorable tail winds, but they've died

But Tesla also has some positives:

1. Supply chain
2. Production agility
3. Unit margin

Add it up, including Musk's Twitter risks, and it's almost impossible to make a case for a positive 2023 assuming declining demand which I am. Note that by "declining demand" I mean ** declining demand GROWTH **

Hell, it might even be hard to make a positive case for 2024 or 2025 unless you're wish-casting.

Ford
Some positives here definitely:

1. Convert ICE platforms to BEV for market speed: smart!
2. Make tough re-org choices, bring on new top talent
3. Market aggressively as the legacy ICE, BEV market leader

But ...

1. Zero to negative BEV margins
2. Only a few BEV models, no BEV platform incl software
3. Quality across both ICE and BEV in the absolute shitter

GM
Lots of positives:

1. Build a ground-up BEV platform at the cost of market speed: huh.
2. Rolling thunder product releases; many models across many categories
3. Make huge investments in innovation & software, i.e., Cruise & Ultify
4. Pick great partners, establish JVs, lock up the supply chain
5. Lever your dealers: invest in them & charging infrastructure

But ...

1. Why is BEV production so low?
2. Why is it so tough to order these BEVs?
3. Why is it so tough to order ICE???

Still, I think in 1-2 years people will be asking how $GM got so far ahead of the other legacy auto companies.

Still quite early though.

[Tejas1836]

I'm holding out for the Applemobile

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

GM
Lots of positives:

1. Build a ground-up BEV platform at the cost of market speed: huh.
2. Rolling thunder product releases; many models across many categories
3. Make huge investments in innovation & software, i.e., Cruise & Ultify
4. Pick great partners, establish JVs, lock up the supply chain
5. Lever your dealers: invest in them & charging infrastructure

But ...

1. Why is BEV production so low?
2. Why is it so tough to order these BEVs?
3. Why is it so tough to order ICE???

Still, I think in 1-2 years people will be asking how $GM got so far ahead of the other legacy auto companies.

Still quite early though.

Another negative for GM. GM choosing pouch battery cell technology for all Ultium powered vehicles. Yes it is a lot less expensive to produce than cylindrical cells. But I can already see the swelling pouch recalls in the future.

Don't trust GM at all. Already delayed their EV production by 6 months. Wouldn't be surprised to see another announced delay. They are not catching Tesla by 2025 like Barra said, laughable comment.

Of all the EVs sold today and releasing in near future, I bet the Model 3 with LFP battery pack is only one that lasts more than 15 years.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Another negative for GM. GM choosing pouch battery cell technology for all Ultium powered vehicles. Yes it is a lot less expensive to produce than cylindrical cells. But I can already see the swelling pouch recalls in the future.

That's kinda wish-casting a future when you already know the unemotional reality: "Yes [Ultium cells are] a lot less expensive to produce than cylindrical cells"

And you missed other key points:

* Ultium batteries use less space & weight: pretty important to BEVs!
* Ultium cells are modular, fitting into any platform: build once, run anywhere
* Ultium cells have wireless management: cost, weight, warranty, etc

And here are the real key points:

• Ultium makes it cheaper ** for GM ** to design & build cars!
• Ultium can and is being white-labeled: next year's Honda CUV uses an Ultium implementation!

That is, not only does Ultium make BEVs way cheaper for GM, it has created an auto supply business they already have customers & revenue from.
---------------

Further, here's how fucked $TSLA is, and hopefully this will break the "Tesla Community" propaganda bubble:


(1.) Musk just sold billions of $TSLA
So he can have "dry powder" for next year. Wait. Isn't $TSLA recession-proof? Isn't $TSLA going to be worth more next year?? Obviously Musk doesn't have high hopes. I wonder what he knows $TSLA bag holders don't (or refuse to admit)?

(2.) $TSLA's market cap is more than the next 3 auto companies combined, but at 5% of their deliveries!
In order to justify this market cap, $TSLA has to have explosive growth, yet it's throttling down China capacity and Berlin & Austin are ~20%, not to mention now a zero backlog in China & the US along with price cuts.
$TSLA has 80% downside risk just to get to parity with other auto makers!

(3.) New luxury brands stop growing at ~15% of the market
This has been historically true in every category including autos (see Mercedes & BMW). To avoid this Tesla has to drastically lower prices of existing products ($30k-$50k) OR come up with a downmarket product. The problem there is (a.) Tesla has explicitly said they're not making a downmarket product and, (b.) No auto company has been able to gain growth downmarket, see Mercedes, BMW, & Audi.

Right now, Tesla's downmarket product will be the Cybertruck ... maybe Musk's pivot to right-wing conspiracy theories is trying to ingratiate himself to this group? BTW, I wonder if Efthreeoh remembers me predicting Musk was going to do this years ago?? It's in these threads somewhere!

(4.) YTD & Y/Y $TSLA is under-performing all other major auto companies!
NOTE: and it's not just these past few months: also in the spring & summer!
What's the catalyst to suddenly reverse this trend?


(5.) Consumer brand fail
Everyone has seen the headlines & the data so I don't need to repost it. Needless to say, the Tesla/Musk Sunshine machine is forever broken.


To your point, none of this is to say Tesla isn't a fantastic company with a great product and wonderful numbers / margins; it is all of those things!
BUT. That doesn't justify a 25x earning market cap. Maybe a 7x or even a 10x, but not 25x.

And finally, a law of investing: don't fall into the bull trap, and get out before capitulation:

$TSLA investors: FEAR = You Are Here

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Don't trust GM at all. Already delayed their EV production by 6 months. Wouldn't be surprised to see another announced delay. They are not catching Tesla by 2025 like Barra said, laughable comment..

Looking at tesla timelines, that's kind of an odd reason for mistrust. Tesla has yet to make good on several product delivery promises it made 5-6 years ago. 6 months is nothing, thanks to tesla re-norming expectations. Which then leads to a tangential thought; so much of our future green greatness is pinned to development of as-yet non-existing technology and product. How can a person be both cynical and optimistic at the same time?

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I'll point out that GM announced the Bolt in February 2016, 5 months after the Model 3 was announced by Tesla in September 2015 and GM put the Bolt into production in November 2016, first deliveries were in December 2016. The Model 3 went into production in July 2017 with deliveries at the end of July 2017. Buy March 2016 GM was publishing pre-production videos while Tesla was showing a Model 3 with no dashboard (they later tacked on the laptop screen).

Then GM started recalling every single Bolt for fire risk. With no fix for months on end, just recommendation not to park your Bolt in your garage. They eventually offered a buyback program. Funny enough days ago GM just issued another recall for fire risk, this time different issue from the battery related fires. 140,000 total vehicles model years 17-23.

So GM has been building EVs since 2016 and is still net negative on their EV production scaling. While Tesla enjoys nearly $10k profit per vehicle on average.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Looking at tesla timelines, that's kind of an odd reason for mistrust.

There are a myriad of reasons I don't believe any of GM's timelines. You actually think GM is taking over Telsa by 2025? The time it took Tesla to get where they are today, is all the more reason to doubt any of Barra's claims.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Which then leads to a tangential thought; so much of our future green greatness is pinned to development of as-yet non-existing technology and product. How can a person be both cynical and optimistic at the same time?

Akio Toyoda has it figured out.

[M3WC]

What are the odds GM figures out they can't produce a Silverado EV WT for $40k.

How exactly is 1WT trim starting $30k less?
- 3WT starts at $72,905
- 4WT starts at $77,905

They will end up pulling a Ford, who raised Lightning Pro $16,000 more than launch price.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

So GM has been building EVs since 2016 and is still net negative on their EV production scaling. Tesla enjoys nearly $10k profit per vehicle on average.

It took tesla 17 years to turn a profit, and the first year they turned profit they made most of their profit off bitcoin and carbon credits (free money). Kind of hard to not profit off free money. It's recently been 20% of their profit.


sales of government credits for making electric vehicles have boosted the company’s overall revenues. The company’s credit sales totaled nearly $1.5 billion in 2021, while Tesla reported net income of $5.52 billion for the year.
https://news.bloombergtax.com/financ...-boost-profits

There are a myriad of reasons I don't believe any of GM's timelines. You actually think GM is taking over Tesla by 2025? The time it took Tesla to get where they are today, is all the more reason to doubt any of Barra's claims.

No, and I don't believe Tesla will achieve any of its stated goals on time either. Without looking, I can't think of a single promise they have made on product release that was delivered on. The refreshed S was ~1-1/2 years late, the refreshed X was ~2 years late, the 3 and Y were late, the roadster is 2+ years and counting late with no real reason to believe it will be anytime in 2023, and it was revealed in 2017. With their chronic lateness, it gives competition extra time to catch up. If 6 months late is a concern to you, Tesla is a better target for scorn and mistrust.

Akio Toyoda has it figured out.

Yes, somebody has to be a winner of this game of chicken, seems Toyota has chosen to be that somebody. They made a successful electric assisted drivetrains long before Tesla was formed so they have a good starting point, supply chain, and collected wisdom to scale from. They also seem to know not to go too fast or "all in" on one single solution.

[Murf the Surf]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

It took tesla 17 years to turn a profit, and the first year they turned profit they made most of their profit off bitcoin and carbon credits (free money). Kind of hard to not profit off free money. It's recently been 20% of their profit.


sales of government credits for making electric vehicles have boosted the company’s overall revenues. The company’s credit sales totaled nearly $1.5 billion in 2021, while Tesla reported net income of $5.52 billion for the year.
https://news.bloombergtax.com/financ...-boost-profits



No, and I don't believe Tesla will achieve any of its stated goals on time either. Without looking, I can't think of a single promise they have made on product release that was delivered on. The refreshed S was ~1-1/2 years late, the refreshed X was ~2 years late, the 3 and Y were late, the roadster is 2+ years and counting late with no real reason to believe it will be anytime in 2023, and it was revealed in 2017. With their chronic lateness, it gives competition extra time to catch up. If 6 months late is a concern to you, Tesla is a better target for scorn and mistrust.



Yes, somebody has to be a winner of this game of chicken, seems Toyota has chosen to be that somebody. They made a successful electric assisted drivetrains long before Tesla was formed so they have a good starting point, supply chain, and collected wisdom to scale from. They also seem to know not to go too fast or "all in" on one single solution.

The fly in that ointment is the government. Depending where you are there seems to be no appetite for hybrids, the activists in many governments want all EV's all the time regardless of the realties about forcing transition without dealing with all of the associated infrastructure requirements, battery charging issues, mining issues etc.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

The fly in that ointment is the government.

[Murf the Surf]

The author of this article is a liberal sympathetic reporter, he is calling out the Canadian government on their latest edict that 25% of all vehicles sold in 2025 be EV's or be fined. Some common sense and realities in the article.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politi...es-regulations

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

The author of this article is a liberal sympathetic reporter, he is calling out the Canadian government on their latest edict that 25% of all vehicles sold in 2025 be EV's or be fined. Some common sense and realities in the article.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politi...es-regulations

If they succeed in making this ev mandate reality, ICE’s will be held and repaired longer than if it had just been left to evolve on its own. EV’s cost more and have less range/utility. Those with less $$, or need more range/utility will hold on to their ICE’s much longer. This is bad for the environment.

I have to wonder what the actual goal is.

[Cos270]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

If they succeed in making this ev mandate reality, ICE’s will be held and repaired longer than if it had just been left to evolve on its own. EV’s cost more and have less range/utility. Those with less $$, or need more range/utility will hold on to their ICE’s much longer. This is bad for the environment.

I have to wonder what the actual goal is.

$$$$ and control. Tale as old as time.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

I have to wonder what the actual goal is.

The goal is what it's always been: money & power.



The West simply can't abandon e-mobility technology and let China obliterate western industry and emerge as the leader in electric mobility.

Political / cultural warriors love to elevate every GD thing to emotionally pleasing conspiratorial heights when the reality is, China layed out this playbook 2 decades ago. And, BTW, China could care less if Musk or GM or VW or whomever build their factories there; what's important to them is the factories are built in China and controlled by China. Which they are.

Tesla is 50%+ Chinese and if his factories in China were shut down (or taken over) he'd be out of business globally immediately.

So that's the foundation: control of a global industry.

GM, Ford, et al are building their BEV infrastructure in America; VW, Mercedes, & BMW are building their BEV infrastructure in the EU.

I still think the pace of BEV transition will be blistering, but that doesn't mean ICE will disappear just like ICE didn't mean horses disappeared ... just way fewer people use them.

Up until 2 years ago you could buy horse feed and supply in downtown silicon valley, a 5 minute walk from Adobe's HQ and Google's new San Jose Campus.

[Tejas1836]

"I still think the pace of BEV transition will be blistering..."
Not without major battery breakthroughs and massive electrical grid upgrades, on the magnitude of ~$6,000 per new EV, which will require breeder reactors.

[Bongoxxx]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

sales of government credits for making electric vehicles have boosted the company’s overall revenues. The company’s credit sales totaled nearly $1.5 billion in 2021, while Tesla reported net income of $5.52 billion for the year.
https://news.bloombergtax.com/financ...-boost-profits
.

So Tesla has used government credits…GM wouldn’t exist today without massive bailouts and tax credits…

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by Tejas1836

"I still think the pace of BEV transition will be blistering..."
Not without major battery breakthroughs and massive electrical grid upgrades, on the magnitude of ~$6,000 per new EV, which will require breeder reactors.

Govts around the world are mandating it so the trend of less ice being sold cannot be turned back. (customers/carmakers haven't a choice in this which is sad) .

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Bongoxxx

So Tesla has used government credits…GM wouldn’t exist today without massive bailouts and tax credits…

the comments about the credits relate to how profitable Tesla is. They have received massive credits for years, year after year. They aren't paying it back either. Divide the credits and other government subsidies by the number of cars they produce vs other manufacturers if you want to see the significance to the profit margin discussion.

[Bongoxxx]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Sure, but for completely different circumstances.

Sure, completely mismanaged company with overrun costs, I guess we could say that is GM or Tesla, but one went bankrupt and required a bailout.

With or without the EV credits, Tesla would still be here.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Bongoxxx

Sure, completely mismanaged company with overrun costs, I guess we could say that is GM or Tesla, but one went bankrupt and required a bailout.

How many cars did tesla make per year in 2009, and how many employees did they have?

With or without the EV credits, Tesla would still be here.

Would they be be so profitable per unit?

[Bongoxxx]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

How many cars did tesla make per year in 2009, and how many employees did they have?



Would they be be so profitable per unit?

What’s your point? GM has about 1/2 the employees it once did. They used to employ 20,000 plus locally here, but now about 5,000. Explain why those jobs are more important than funding companies that are looking to the future and/or developing completely new markets/products?

How many cars did GM make in its first year of existence? How many employees did they have?

How much tax money has GM taken over the years?

My point is you keep pointing that Tesla has been using EV credits to increase profits, great why wouldn’t you if the government is making it available.

GM and the other formerly big 3 have been sucking on the government gravy train for ever.

GM wouldn’t exist today in its current form if it wasn’t bailed out.