[Noneya]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

At casinos the odds are stacked heavily against you. You're only hedging and improving your odds if you count cards in poker, but they will probably catch you, and they will probably use multiple decks

You probably meant blackjack. The odds in the roulette are stacked mildly against you and not heavily. And that's exactly the same story with your bespoke trading strategy, and why you have the illusion that you're doing something smart.

[premier3is]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

This is the way.

And it is how I operate in my RH account, I own 50-100 stocks at a time in different segments of the market. Repositioning as the climate changes. Do I always beat the indexes? No. But I am fairly safe from a single stock tanking and I have higher beta (chance for upside) than just broad indexes. Also I buy small positions in etfs like SPY, DIA, QQQ, as they allow me to benefit from whole market advances and let me watch the gains (I keep an eye on the 'total % change' stat over ownership).

So in short: portfolio diversification with high beta.

But….. just because you're diversified into different sectors doesn't really mean your hedged. Nor does it mean you're safe at all. It's just an illusion you have from that, like someone else mentioned. Hedging would be like selling covered calls, or trading spreads.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by premier3is

So in short: portfolio diversification with high beta.

But….. just because you're diversified into different sectors doesn't really mean your hedged. Nor does it mean you're safe at all. It's just an illusion you have from that, like someone else mentioned. Hedging would be like selling covered calls, or trading spreads.

Blah blah blah, his is what the financial advisors tell you so you pay them. I made 50 percent on my portfolio last yr, with only 85 percent in the market.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Noneya

You probably meant blackjack. The odds in the roulette are stacked mildly against you and not heavily. And that's exactly the same story with your bespoke trading strategy, and why you have the illusion that you're doing something smart.

The fear mongering continues

[premier3is]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Blah blah blah, his is what the financial advisors tell you so you pay them. I made 50 percent on my portfolio last yr, with only 85 percent in the market.

Anyone can make money in a bull market run, so no need to even compare numbers lol. My statement was just saying just because your diversified doesn't mean your hedged.

[tom2021]

It used to be when you saw the art markets went crazy: a painting worth over $100 millions, you knew what was up would came down. Now, even used cars prices go up. Lo and behold the whole monetary system in chaos. How will you actually value $1000 in the near future? Be diversified: stocks, properties, cars, commodities, bitcoins, tools, equipment etc. At least, you will hang on to something other than paper money that will be worthless.

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

The fear mongering continues

If you understand that you're largely gambling, there is nothing to fear. I have nothing against voluntary and informed gambling. It's only if you start thinking that you're not gambling and you're just smart is when you run into troubles. Just like those guys who bet on red because it's been black 10 times in a row.

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I made 50 percent on my portfolio last yr, with only 85 percent in the market.

the money i put into a robo managed IRA account gained 50% last year
so that's really not a qualifier of anything

if you DIDN'T make 50 percent gains last year thanks to the covid discount, then that'd be the outlier

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Noneya

If you understand that you're largely gambling, there is nothing to fear. I have nothing against voluntary and informed gambling. It's only if you start thinking that you're not gambling and you're just smart is when you run into troubles. Just like those guys who bet on red because it's been black 10 times in a row.

I am not gambling. I am just smart.

Uh oh, now I am doomed

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I am not gambling. I am just smart.

Uh oh, now I am doomed

Good luck with your gambles then. I mean smart strategies. I mean gambles.

[XKxRome0ox]

seeing lots of red in my portfolios after the long weekend
first instinct was to double down on these positions
but i'm going to try to stay patient and wait for a better spot

[chassis]

Europe reopening is a tailwind for US equities. I have checked in with some smart people in my circle and they are bullish, as am I. Overweight growth. If you can keep some dry powder ready for a dip, while achieving your portfolio objectives, that is a good scenario in my view.

[XKxRome0ox]

bought some more GME shares this week with the price dip

lots of red in my portfolio
hopefully the bull run isn't going to end just yet

[XKxRome0ox]

i should have started using a spreadsheet before starting some of these wheels and spreads
i'm going to lose track of my cost basis as i open and close more of these options

[KevinC]

I lost my job in late 2008 as the recession took hold. I had about $220k in an IRA to fall back on. I put about $20k of it into Apple stock, the rest into a variety of mutual funds.

13 years later, my original $20k stake in AAPL now sits at $165k - and that's after selling off chunks of it MANY times. Both cars in my garage are paid for out of some of the profits. If only I'd put the entire $220k into Apple and sat on all of it. Hindsight is 20/20, but still a great outcome and still hanging onto a signficant chunk.

[chassis]

I listened recently to a Barry Ritholtz/Masters in Business podcast, where Barry said that 30% of Bitcoins mined have either been lost/misplaced by their owners, or have been hacked and stolen.

Not for me.

Does anyone have comments on the idea that custody or wallet security is a major issue with crypto? Another example wallet insecurity is the FBI re-hacking BTC from the pipeline hackers.

[IllSic_Design]

Originally Posted by chassis

I listened recently to a Barry Ritholtz/Masters in Business podcast, where Barry said that 30% of Bitcoins mined have either been lost/misplaced by their owners, or have been hacked and stolen.

Not for me.

Does anyone have comments on the idea that custody or wallet security is a major issue with crypto? Another example wallet insecurity is the FBI re-hacking BTC from the pipeline hackers.

Lost/misplaced means they lost the keys to their wallets. Easy solution, don't lose the keys and keep them in multiple SECURE locations.

Hacked and stolen mainly means that exchanges were hacked and they stole peoples Bitcoin that they had on there.
MAJOR TIP: Don't leave LOTS of funds on exchanges, because you should know it's possible for this to happen.

Crypto cold/hardware wallets are VERY secure, I don't know of any that have really been "hacked" per se, more so people/scammers got access somehow to the KEYS to the wallets, not that they actually hacked them. That is how they got the colonial pipeline ransom back.

Almost all of my crypto is on my hardware wallet, Ledger Nano S.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by IllSic_Design

Lost/misplaced means they lost the keys to their wallets. Easy solution, don't lose the keys and keep them in multiple SECURE locations.

Hacked and stolen mainly means that exchanges were hacked and they stole peoples Bitcoin that they had on there.
MAJOR TIP: Don't leave LOTS of funds on exchanges, because you should know it's possible for this to happen.

Crypto cold/hardware wallets are VERY secure, I don't know of any that have really been "hacked" per se, more so people/scammers got access somehow to the KEYS to the wallets, not that they actually hacked them. That is how they got the colonial pipeline ransom back.

Almost all of my crypto is on my hardware wallet, Ledger Nano S.

The hardware wallet seems very similar to keeping cash in a mattress. It's as secure as you can fortify your house, including from natural disasters. So you are moving liability from an exchange you can't trust to yourself.

[chassis]

Recent economic report I read said 6%+ US GDP growth in 2021, and 4.5% growth in 2022. Seems reasonable.

I can see 2023 being strong as well, just not many articles written yet because the crystal ball gets foggy at the 18-24 month forecast window.

[M_Six]

Originally Posted by chassis

Recent economic report I read said 6%+ US GDP growth in 2021, and 4.5% growth in 2022. Seems reasonable.

I can see 2023 being strong as well, just not many articles written yet because the crystal ball gets foggy at the 18-24 month forecast window.

Let's hope this holds true. k

[premier3is]

Originally Posted by chassis

I listened recently to a Barry Ritholtz/Masters in Business podcast, where Barry said that 30% of Bitcoins mined have either been lost/misplaced by their owners, or have been hacked and stolen.

Not for me.

Does anyone have comments on the idea that custody or wallet security is a major issue with crypto? Another example wallet insecurity is the FBI re-hacking BTC from the pipeline hackers.

IllSic_Design outlined it perfectly above for you. In short, basically all the lost coins are people who forgot their password and private seed key which means you'll never be able to gain access to them again.

Can't imagine how some of those people feel, especially from the early days when bitcoin was in the pennies.

[IllSic_Design]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

The hardware wallet seems very similar to keeping cash in a mattress. It's as secure as you can fortify your house, including from natural disasters. So you are moving liability from an exchange you can't trust to yourself.

Kind of, but not exactly. You don't need your one specific hardware wallet to get access to your coins, you can use anyone(new, and of the same brand anyways). So say you have a hardware wallet and there's a fire in your home and it gets burnt up. Well as long as you have the password/seed phrase(12 or 24 words) stored somewhere safely; another house, on the cloud, etc.. then you just go buy another Ledger wallet and input your password and you have access to your funds again. The wallet is not really the key to having access to your funds, its totally dependent on keeping the password/seed phrase accessible and safe.