[chassis]

GDP moving along well. Real GDP also positive.

GDP is a terribly lagging indicator with little usefulness, I provide it here for the people who only read headlines in the MSM.

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

The primary reason we had two negative quarters of GDP growth was because the government spent WAY less money than the preceding quarters. That's why there is no universal definition of a recession and its up to the NBER to determine when one started and ended.

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP has always been considered a recession. Just because the same degenerate liars are lying again doesn’t change that fact.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by NickyC

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP has always been considered a recession. Just because the same degenerate liars are lying again doesn’t change that fact.

Repeating it over and over again does not make it correct. Two consecutive quarter drops in GDP generally defines a recession, but with no drop in industrial production, an uptick in consumption, an increase in jobs one can not logically conclude that it was a recession. The massive drop in government spending (due to the vacuum caused by no stimmy bills) is the direct cause of that.

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

Repeating it over and over again does not make it correct. Two consecutive quarter drops in GDP generally defines a recession, but with no drop in industrial production, an uptick in consumption, an increase in jobs one can not logically conclude that it was a recession. The massive drop in government spending (due to the vacuum caused by no stimmy bills) is the direct cause of that.

I’m not arguing over their lie.

[ASAP]

i agree, changing definitions is shifty at best... its like them changing the definition of unemployment or adding / removing components of cpi...

either way, latest news says powell is still poised at another 1/4 point hike next week... we'll see

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by ASAP

You guys are aware that if the RATE of inflation slows... that doesn't decrease the prices, right? It just decreases the rate of growth... unless deflation happens (which is typically thought of as a bad thing), we are all poorer than we were a year ago, 2 years ago or 3 years ago... that is unless somehow your wage growth kept up or outpaced inflation. In most people's cases across the country, wage growth fell way back... so we are going to always be stuck with higher prices than before unless some mass contagion happens with layoffs, a total banking crash or something else.

Very of course I understand that.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by other_evolved

Repeating it over and over again does not make it correct. Two consecutive quarter drops in GDP generally defines a recession, but with no drop in industrial production, an uptick in consumption, an increase in jobs one can not logically conclude that it was a recession. The massive drop in government spending (due to the vacuum caused by no stimmy bills) is the direct cause of that.

Omg that is such fucking bullshit. And if it is fucking true I just wanna be false. Those other requirements you added for your own agenda are there for that alone. Just because quartly drops doesn’t always mean economic fallout, doesnt mean we not in recession. If we cannot define it, it doesn’t exist at all.

My least favorite thing about cnbc and other economic analysis media and people is when they add stipulations for their own gain. Define a recession in real, simple terms or you will never have any data nor correlation (trends)

[antzcrashing]

There’s a thing about the market that I could not be more sure of: It is that the VIXY (volatility index) will spike in the coming 6 months above the current price of $11 (LOL what?]

Therefore I own it through a small equity position and call options will short term expy

I don’t recommend following me into this risky trade

Cramer thinks the VIX will stay low for awhile because no one wants options anymore

[antzcrashing]

The banks are next to fall, and hard. I market sold them in my brokerage. SP500 will fall with them, DIA and QQQ will be hurt but leas hurt, seen as safe havens. Sentiment: buy dividend aristocrats in Dow jones

Not investing advice

I will shut up and watch now.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

The banks are next to fall, and hard. I market sold them in my brokerage. SP500 will fall with them, DIA and QQQ will be hurt but leas hurt, seen as safe havens. Sentiment: buy dividend aristocrats in Dow jones

Not investing advice

I will shut up and watch now.

What causes “the banks” to fall?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by chassis

What causes “the banks” to fall?

Great question
Higher interest rates which increase revenue from mortgages and other loans but that increase doesn’t offset the higher customer acquisition costs, and ultimately transaction rates fall. Some banks are better suited to handle this, but none are bulletproof for this environment

Also, FUD takes stock investors (even gasp retail investors which matter Scott Wapner)

[ASAP]

So if one can get a 100K discount off asking price of a house from a year ago, is this stilll a good time to buy? i mean in my mind yes... bcuz nothing is moving RE prices from what i can tell

[TTM0TION]

I’m waiting to see what happens with rates. 3% is nice.

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by ASAP

So if one can get a 100K discount off asking price of a house from a year ago, is this stilll a good time to buy? i mean in my mind yes... bcuz nothing is moving RE prices from what i can tell

Interesting. All the radio shows and YouTube channels have been saying and showing data that RE has been declining, just like the luxury market.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Interesting. All the radio shows and YouTube channels have been saying and showing data that RE has been declining, just like the luxury market.

when I say 100K off, this translates to 20% off the sticker price lol...

I agree, RE has massively stalled with Interest Rates... I had a chat with a local realtor last week who was honest with me (I actually know her from back in the day)... and she mentioned, the rates have tanked sales. The developer is now willing to make amends and sell at a slight loss.

Question is, will things fall further or as summer comes and the fed inevitably has to reverse rates to not cause an impending crash... will things change to give us another upward trend?

[NickyC]

QE forever until dollar collapse. What a joke.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20230319a.htm

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

any thoughts as to why housing prices are increasing or staying the same after the price hikes even with interest rates rising...isn't it supposed to decrease? also what happens when things normalize and everyone is upside down...also any ideas or trends to why this housing market and rent is so expensive and holding

[NickyC]

Originally Posted by G35POPPEDMYCHERRY

any thoughts as to why housing prices are increasing or staying the same after the price hikes even with interest rates rising...isn't it supposed to decrease? also what happens when things normalize and everyone is upside down...also any ideas or trends to why this housing market and rent is so expensive and holding

I think most landlords, owners, realtors etc. are calling the Fed's bluff as they know it's complete nonsense to believe rates can continue to rise. We've lost what, three banks now in the past week and we're basically at 5%. The Fed with their move today basically gave up the inflation fighting scam, it's going to be QE to the moon until a complete collapse of the dollar. The only way prices are ever coming down again is if there is a full blown depression which is looking increasing likely as the days drag on. I don't think many people, especially the great unwashed March Madness watching crowds right now, understand how dire things are at this moment. There are roughly 200 banks in the US which are on the verge of collapse, their situation is every bit as precarious as SVBs was.

This morning the incompetents Powell and Yellen said "the liquidity of US banks is strong". Then just a few hours later, they announced a coordinated effort with central banks around the world to shore up liquidity. The lying never, ever stops.

Prices are never going back down until a full on depression, at which point none of us are safe.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by NickyC

I think most landlords, owners, realtors etc. are calling the Fed's bluff as they know it's complete nonsense to believe rates can continue to rise. We've lost what, three banks now in the past week and we're basically at 5%. The Fed with their move today basically gave up the inflation fighting scam, it's going to be QE to the moon until a complete collapse of the dollar. The only way prices are ever coming down again is if there is a full blown depression which is looking increasing likely as the days drag on. I don't think many people, especially the great unwashed March Madness watching crowds right now, understand how dire things are at this moment. There are roughly 200 banks in the US which are on the verge of collapse, their situation is every bit as precarious as SVBs was.

This morning the incompetents Powell and Yellen said "the liquidity of US banks is strong". Then just a few hours later, they announced a coordinated effort with central banks around the world to shore up liquidity. The lying never, ever stops.

Prices are never going back down until a full on depression, at which point none of us are safe.

gotcha, so might all well YOLO cause if I do move into my expensive ass apartment during the depression than everyone else will be evicted.

I have enough saved to survive 10+ years there without zero income...but obviously trying to time the cheapest rent

sick how people in this country spend money, especially borrowed money

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by G35POPPEDMYCHERRY

any thoughts as to why housing prices are increasing or staying the same after the price hikes even with interest rates rising...isn't it supposed to decrease? also what happens when things normalize and everyone is upside down...also any ideas or trends to why this housing market and rent is so expensive and holding

Housing prices are up in some, but definitely not all, markets because of a lack of supply. Closing prices likely have softened even if listing prices have held.

Rents are numerous factors. Risk of non-payment increased in the pandemic and hasn’t materially declined (policy issue, not a change in willingness or ability to pay), higher interest rates imply higher rents to get an adequate ROI as a property owner - or the price of the rental units will decline. Supply remains a problem in some markets, and high housing prices have pushed more people to rent (plus fear of paying too much), increasing demand.

Lots of moving parts and variability around the country on this topic.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by G35POPPEDMYCHERRY

any thoughts as to why housing prices are increasing or staying the same after the price hikes even with interest rates rising...isn't it supposed to decrease? also what happens when things normalize and everyone is upside down...also any ideas or trends to why this housing market and rent is so expensive and holding

I think part of it is that people with 2-4% mortgages aren’t selling and builders may be slowing down the pace of new construction. Additionally, there are still cash buyers out there. Therefore, even though some buyers have decided to wait due to rates, there was a big imbalance previously due to lack of available inventory before the rate hikes and there are reasons inventory will remain constrained, so we don’t necessarily need a huge decline in prices to find something closer to equilibrium. Just need some buyers to step away from the market. It’s not like post-2008 when the market was flooded with inventory due to foreclosures and short sales. Obviously, factors vary by market and the effects will only last so long. People will always need housing and higher rates don’t really change that fact.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

I think part of it is that people with 2-4% mortgages aren’t selling and builders may be slowing down the pace of new construction. Additionally, there are still cash buyers out there. Therefore, even though some buyers have decided to wait due to rates, there was a big imbalance previously due to lack of available inventory before the rate hikes and there are reasons inventory will remain constrained, so we don’t necessarily need a huge decline in prices to find something closer to equilibrium. Just need some buyers to step away from the market. It’s not like post-2008 when the market was flooded with inventory due to foreclosures and short sales. Obviously, factors vary by market and the effects will only last so long. People will always need housing and higher rates don’t really change that fact.

i tend to agree... the 2-3% buyers are technically stuck forever unless something FORCES then to move...

I now am thinking about buying and the developer has offered a buy down on the int rate and $100k price down from a year ago... so yea major shifts are happening

sales have tanked since november... so i think this will be far more a used house rather than new house problem... as long as inventory stays constrained