[KoenG]

Originally Posted by chassis

Don't be so sure that retail transaction prices will decline for EVs, although they are less costly to manufacture than ICEs. Automakers today have a share of consumers' wallets they don't want to give up, for 4 tires and a steering wheel. A vehicle is a commodity, an appliance. Like a toaster.

Did Tesla enter the market with a lower price for an apples-to-apples equivalent transportation solution compared with ICE? They entered the market with a higher price for an equivalent transportation solution.

In 2030 the expectation is that 30% of global new vehicles built will be EV. This means 70% will have an ICE of some type. This means EVs and ICE will live in the same commercial marketplace together for a good long while.

When transportationally equivalent ICE and EV products are sitting in the same showroom, carmakers and dealers will resist lowering price for an EV, for what is essentially the same product delivering most of the same customer benefits as an ICE vehicle. For those who insist on an EV, carmakers and dealers will gladly charge the highest price the market will bear to those consumers. If the consumer balks at a high EV price, they always have the option to buy an ICE vehicle. But for consumers who cannot tolerate ICE, they need to pay the money for an EV.

This is a perfect trap for carmakers and dealers.

Profit margin on the ICE will remain essentially what it is today, with profit margin on the EV substantially higher because it is produced with tens of thousands fewer workers.

KoenG Will you please share your view of price and profit as it relates to ICE, hybrid and EVs? Thanks.

I believe that your analysis makes perfect sense in a transition phase. During such a period there are all kind of arguments specific to the transition at play that vanish after the transition. Like now, I wonder whether BMW didn't price the i4/X a bit too low seen the immediate delivery delays because of the production start up and covid situation?

Of course, in Europe we mostly are convinced by now that the ICE and hybrids will get eradicated around 2035. As from then, countries seem to only allow new BEV or hydrogen alternatives. In the US, apparently, there is an overall conviction that the buyer continues to choose his preference and ICE will remain one of those options. I don't believe that, the remaining market will become too small to justify the massive costs in keeping ICE alive and the transition will happen irrespective but a few years later then.

So when there is a time in the future where all cars have become BEV, they will have a lower retail price. Wether that's at benefit of the individual buyer or an opportunity to increase taxes for the govenment is still to be seen. It will most probably never become a higher margin for the manufacturer. But for we are that far, manufacturers will price their BEV as high as possible to balance the prices with ICE/hybrid and backlog in their production plants.

[ynguldyn]

Originally Posted by MadBimmeRad

I am simply anti BS and the argument put forward by the EV industry is a whole lot of .... selective brainwashing (to be polite)

Your very long post, with all the good and proper data cited, has one major flaw. You're fighting a straw man. Because no one has ever said that all we have to do to stop climate change is buy more EVs.

It does help though.

[ynguldyn]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

Electricity price here now is out of control and the gov's push for EV's is going to stall, nobody I know wants these things. The ban on new gas and diesel vehicles from 2030 (originally 2040) here wasn't in the gov. manifesto and the PM brought it in out of the blue when he got into power under pressure from his greenie wife.
I'm in a motorists action group fighting all the lies being spread to the gov. about pollution due to vehicles from greenie sponsored 'analysts'.

This is a classic example of selection bias. One should never measure the moods of a country just by looking at one's friend group.

Reality in the UK: https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/electric...d-to-electric/

[ynguldyn]

Originally Posted by kyrix1st

I will not go into detail how each of your inferences is flawed, because it would be enough to say at least one person has to know every upper boundary for this to even start to be true.

What really separates a good engineer from a good robot, is the human element. That's why humans aspire to be "better", and create alternatives. So for an engineer to stick with boring and soulless solution, means he/she settles for the current state.

You're confusing an engineer's personal motivation with the operation of an end product.

Simple is beautiful.

[dezzracer]

This was certainly a thought provoking thread on the future of EV and what it can actually achieve in the long run. I don't think anybody really knows. Brings to mind the push for recycling plants 30 years ago.

The vision of recycling trucks coming by your house once or twice a week to empty your recycle containers on the surface seems like a good idea and makes us all "feel good". Until you consider the energy and materials needed to build and maintain all of those large recycle trucks. And the diesel fuel and oil needed to motivate them. And the recycling plants that need to be built and the energy they consume. And all of the workers and truck drivers that need to drive to those plants to work. And the energy and raw materials it takes to convert the recycle refuse into renewable product. And that 50% of the refuge collected has to be discarded and transferred to a proper dump site as it should not have been put in the "recycle container" in the first place.

It does make one wonder what the true net gain is. No..the issue of pollution and global warming is extremely complex problem facing humanity and not an easy one to solve. Perhaps we will one day find a new planet in which we can inhabit or use as a dumping ground. Because let's face it, the bottom line is we have an exponentially growing population that one day earth will not be able to sustain. We need to fix it or it will be fixed for us by Mother Nature and she can be brutal.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by KoenG

I believe that your analysis makes perfect sense in a transition phase. During such a period there are all kind of arguments specific to the transition at play that vanish after the transition. Like now, I wonder whether BMW didn't price the i4/X a bit too low seen the immediate delivery delays because of the production start up and covid situation?

Of course, in Europe we mostly are convinced by now that the ICE and hybrids will get eradicated around 2035. As from then, countries seem to only allow new BEV or hydrogen alternatives. In the US, apparently, there is an overall conviction that the buyer continues to choose his preference and ICE will remain one of those options. I don't believe that, the remaining market will become too small to justify the massive costs in keeping ICE alive and the transition will happen irrespective but a few years later then.

So when there is a time in the future where all cars have become BEV, they will have a lower retail price. Wether that's at benefit of the individual buyer or an opportunity to increase taxes for the govenment is still to be seen. It will most probably never become a higher margin for the manufacturer. But for we are that far, manufacturers will price their BEV as high as possible to balance the prices with ICE/hybrid and backlog in their production plants.

KoenG Are you familiar with the mainstream automotive industry forecasting data? The data used by carmakers and other companies in the business? 2035 is not the end of ICE/hybrid in Europe, according to those people. Please don't believe me. Rather, believe the people who are the preeminent automotive industry forecasters.

[x622]

Originally Posted by Teutonic

Yeah, 600 hp from 4 cyl.
Start lookind at their reliability if you want.
There is that much you can squeeze from an engine. Racing engines do that two… sometimes for a few laps…

It was 600hp with the hybrid assist. It's just the same powerplant as what's in the CLA's at 400 and change.

[MadBimmeRad]

KoenG

Now we are getting closer to the real reasons why EVs are forced down our throats.

For one thing, be it petrol, gas; diesel; avgas, or any other petroleum product, in Europe, given they don't have much condensate resources, price of fuel is astronomically high when compared to the oil producing nations such as US or the Middle East.

Additionally, with some countries in EU in dire financial woes, a quick solution is to reduce your national fuel bill and pushing EVs is a good way to achieve that.

Remember my friend, an honest politician is a dead politician. Just because they legislate against ICE, it doesn't mean they have YOUR best interest at heart

[KoenG]

Originally Posted by chassis

KoenG Are you familiar with the mainstream automotive industry forecasting data? The data used by carmakers and other companies in the business? 2035 is not the end of ICE/hybrid in Europe, according to those people. Please don't believe me. Rather, believe the people who are the preeminent automotive industry forecasters.

I refer to the European intent now, which is pure politics of course: https://www.euractiv.com/section/ele...ngine-by-2035/
Today the intent is 0g CO² against 2035 which eliminates any ICE, how clever it might be, from being sold any where in the EU.

I understand that there are car manufacturers, amongst them BMW, who revolt against these plans and already replied to the EU parliament that they will NOT comply!

EU replied that they have a battery of incentives (read: penalties and fines) ready to motivate manufacturers to comply. Anyway, zero emission is not a gray border, it's a pretty black/white one. Everything above 0gr will no longer can get registrated.

[dezzracer]

Originally Posted by x622

It was 600hp with the hybrid assist. It's just the same powerplant as what's in the CLA's at 400 and change.

And that's the concept that makes most sense to me. I have an E mountain bike that is pedal "assist". If you don't pedal you don't go anywhere. And the e power assist feed is seamless.

[KRS_SN]

I love watching people around me going ev. the commitment to planning journeys to include charging and watching them plugging in day in day out every day is very appreciated to clean up our air while they pay great purchase price for their new appliances to get a few thousands in tax rebates.

[chassis]

KoenG Is intent equal to legislation? Please avail yourself of the auto industry forecast data. It does not call for zero ICE/hybrid in Europe in 2035. Please convince yourself of this. Don’t take my word for it.

Germany, the most prosperous country in the EU, has national strategic, not environmental, reasons to move to EVs: energy supply. Today they rely on Russia for natural gas and on the Middle East for oil. Living in Europe, you are quite familiar with the annual drama that plays out at the start of every heating season as Russia squeezes their gas customers politically. Germany is not energy self-sufficient. EVs create better self sufficiency for Germany.

Nuclear, wind and solar can be a strong combination for German national security. It gives them more optionality, completely ignoring environmental benefits, if any exist at all in the total pollution chain.

Meanwhile in the US, the automakers need to change their shirts because they have drooled all over themselves counting the increased profits they expect, while using tens of thousands fewer workers to produce vehicles.

Follow the money and the national security.

[BimmerMat135]

2022 The year we can't talk about ice without getting the ev crowd telling us the ev are better.

Ev are better for commuter cars but really lack in the emotional department beign totally soulless. I always say that ev are for people who prefer to watch porn rather than actually have sex it easier but you're missing on the involvement part.

[brad850csi]

Originally Posted by MadBimmeRad

Whilst I'm not calling your statement idiotic, it is in fact idiotic to assume only cars produce CO². It's equally idiotic to assume only CO² is responsible for climate change, and even more idiotic to think EVs are the answer to everything.

EVs present another nail in the coffin and you'll be holding your head down in shame when you find your grandchildren in dismay come 30 or so years when most natural resources and rare-earth minerals used in producing EVs have been depleted to, and for, nothing because - let me say this slowly so it's easy to comprehend, EVs ARE A NET POLLUTER when you consider the damage they cause to the environment just to produce 1 single EV.

Finally, how does the electricity you charge EVs with get produced? Gas turbines, diesel or coal-fired power plants, or wind and solar? The first three blow any argument for EVs out of the water, because more gas/diesel/coal has to be burnt creating more CO² trying to produce electricity for those "emission-free" EVs.

We already know what a nightmare the wind turbines have become thanks to their short life cycle and, largely, not being recyclable. Solar energy, well maybe, but all your solar panels will be useless and have to change every ten or so years.

No, EVs are not the solution, they are part of the problem

and the problem is, going in head first without thinking about consequences.

We as a species keep making the same mistakes hoping for better results

Einstein called that insanity

Just like here, most of our power is water, but when we have higher use or a drought we fire up the coal to meet the need. This happens once a year for about 3-6 months depending on the year. So even in NZ which is a very Hydro heavy country, ultimately your tesla or some other virtue signal mobile is powered by coal.

And the funniest thing is that our stupid left wing government banned gas exploration here and basically shut down our own coal mines that were mining very good quality coal providing local jobs to change to dirty poor quality coal from Indonesia to then put on a big boat, then finally the coal is trucked to the power plants from the ports so that we could say we aren't mining our own coal.

[MadBimmeRad]

Originally Posted by brad850csi

Just like here, most of our power is water, but when we have higher use or a drought we fire up the coal to meet the need. This happens once a year for about 3-6 months depending on the year. So even in NZ which is a very Hydro heavy country, ultimately your tesla or some other virtue signal mobile is powered by coal.

And the funniest thing is that our stupid left wing government banned gas exploration here and basically shut down our own coal mines that were mining very good quality coal providing local jobs to change to dirty poor quality coal from Indonesia to then put on a big boat, then finally the coal is trucked to the power plants from the ports so that we could say we aren't mining our own coal.

Politics! Don't you just love it!?

[LOW4LYF]

Originally Posted by BimmerMat135

2022 The year we can't talk about ice without getting the ev crowd telling us the ev are better.

Ev are better for commuter cars but really lack in the emotional department beign totally soulless. I always say that ev are for people who prefer to watch porn rather than actually have sex it easier but you're missing on the involvement part.

I think it's more about priorities in your life.

Back in the days my car was very important for me, I had my first car 1 year before I was eligible for my driver's license.

Now 25 years later, I still have 8 cars... 4 are V8, 3 are R6 and 1 is R4. However I use my cars now and replace them if needed. Back in the days I was washing my M4 with a bucket and towels, today I bring the X5M to the automatic car wash at the gas station, who cares.

I don't need a burble tune at look at me paint job and prefer to stay under the radar.
The I4 M50 is the perfect vehicle for my needs.

[timnkoo]

Originally Posted by MadBimmeRad

Politics! Don't you just love it!?

Drives me nuts. Just imagine if the $ were rediverted from costs associated with playing politics to actual progression....

[brad850csi]

Originally Posted by MadBimmeRad

Politics! Don't you just love it!?

You guys are so much better off than us. I've spent enough time in Brisbane and Melbourne that I can drive around them as if I'm driving around Auckland - but my mum (from Geelong and came to NZ in 76) would prefer to kill Daniel Andrews instead of jacinda - I'd sell my M6 for $1 to kill jacinda....

[MadBimmeRad]

Originally Posted by brad850csi

You guys are so much better off than us. I've spent enough time in Brisbane and Melbourne that I can drive around them as if I'm driving around Auckland - but my mum (from Geelong and came to NZ in 76) would prefer to kill Daniel Andrews instead of jacinda - I'd sell my M6 for $1 to kill jacinda....

Dude, killing is not the solution, although, M6 for a dollar is kinda tempting

[brad850csi]

Originally Posted by MadBimmeRad

Dude, killing is not the solution, although, M6 for a dollar is kinda tempting

Done! Just wait 12 months to get into the MIQ queue unless you are a DJ with cocaine and karol sroubek connections to clarke gayford so you can give him cocaine after our 'celeb drug scandal'

[Hutchinson04]

I don't think anyone below the age of 50 can deny that at some point in his/her lifetime he or she will likely witness the end of the ICE. The majority of consumers below 40 undeniably want tech versus styling/performance in their cars. That's part of the reason why Tesla produced their highest output of vehicles in 2021. Once the science allows for the charging time to be equivalent to filling a tank; game over. The science is continuing to edge towards 300 miles or more on a full charge. That's more than what most drive before they take a restroom break, stretch, grab a snack/drink, etc. Moral of the story is don't wait too long to buy that dream ICE car.

[tracer bullet]

Good friend has a Tesla Model 3. Addictive acceleration, fun tech, and free charging at work. Running the numbers he saves about 4 grand a year on gas (he has a long-ish drive to work). He likes that it's made in the US and doesn't have tailpipe emissions, but it's the other stuff that sealed the deal. Sometimes the choice can be this simple.