[Burrcold]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

Didn't say ICE cars, new or used, will be banned or not allowed by law at 2030. Again you're reaching just to have anything to say in this dicussion.

I am saying the totality of EV's on the road will be at 50% by 2030 in my opinion. Give or take a year or 2. That's why the gas ban is 2035. It gives people time to either get on board, or dig into the used ICE market and find your forever ICE car.

Now post 2035 will the govt ban the usage of ICE cars? I actually wouldn't doubt it. Not in the sense that if they catch you you're going to jail. But probably a heavy mileage restriction, similar to leasing a car. Basically ICE will be for recreational purposes. You want to drive your ICE car post 2035? Ok pay a fee. How much? Depends. You want 5k miles a year, pay this amount. You want 10k miles a year, pay this amount.

This is the inevitable and i already agreed this is more about politics than anything else. I hate talking about politics.

But in this case, that's going to win. And that's what i'm preaching.

Let's have fun in 7 years

Fair enough, it's just your opinion as you stated. I've given mine. Come back in 7 years and we'll talk. Hopefully your hands won't be too sticky to type.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

I am saying the totality of EV's on the road will be at 50% by 2030 in my opinion. Give or take a year or 2.

So you are planning to displace and dispose of more than half of 275 million cars in the next ~7 years? (275/2)/7= 19.64 million

You would need to produce 19.64 million EV's a year, every year, and have zero failures, and have zero new ICE's built in that same time. Neither of those things will happen. Neither of them can happen.

That 19.6 million figure is more than total annual sales of all new cars in the US. Even if 100% of all new sales were EV's, you still couldn't hit that target.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by Burrcold

Fair enough, it's just your opinion as you stated. I've given mine. Come back in 7 years and we'll talk. Hopefully your hands won't be too sticky to type.

Finally.

That's all that this is. A discussion of opinions. It favors me but hey, maybe they might "push" the EV transition further. But i doubt it.

We're in the hybrid phase. Next stop? Full EV. It's coming. 2030 we will see that "gigantic" swing.

Also this is a cool video.

And people think this won't advance even farther in 7 years? It won't replace 100% of cars, but it's going to make everyone say oh shit this is really happening.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

Finally.
Also this is a cool video.

And people think this won't advance even farther in 7 years? It won't replace 100% of cars, but it's going to make everyone say oh shit this is really happening.

Ditching Radar and relying on video input only is a disaster waiting to happen. Oh wait, disaster has already happened, and can be reproduced.

[Rono63]

All of this speculation is based on the U.S. and EU. Do you really think the rest of the planet is even thinking about EVs. I would think there will be a lot of ice vehicles still being driven in the second half of this century.

At some point I think the automotive manufacturers will realize this also. Only question is which ones will want to supply this market.

As someone that deals with the utilities industry, I would say that it will take decades to change the infrastructure from petroleum to electricity.

Right now Texas and California are having problems to supply the demand of current electrical grid and as of right now there's no current plan to build new power plants in Texas.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Rono63

As someone that deals with the utilities industry, I would say that it will take decades to change the infrastructure from petroleum to electricity.

Right now Texas and California are having problems to supply the demand of current electrical grid and as of right now there's no current plan to build new power plants in Texas.

Even if they broke ground on all the new production plants today, it will take decades to bring the supply side in line with these plans to add all this EV load. "Built it and they will come" does not work with critical infrastructure.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by Rono63

All of this speculation is based on the U.S. and EU. Do you really think the rest of the planet is even thinking about EVs. I would think there will be a lot of ice vehicles still being driven in the second half of this century.

At some point I think the automotive manufacturers will realize this also. Only question is which ones will want to supply this market.

As someone that deals with the utilities industry, I would say that it will take decades to change the infrastructure from petroleum to electricity.

Right now Texas and California are having problems to supply the demand of current electrical grid and as of right now there's no current plan to build new power plants in Texas.

That's all it takes for something to be set in stone. EU and america. EU being more strict.

Car makers have already made "promises". Again this is not looking good for ICE lovers. The only thing you guys are banking on, is that when the next person goes in office, things get reversed or backed out. Doubt it but that's your only chance.

Until then, the plan is laid out (i almost put "the plaid" is out LOL).

2030 is still far away so there's still time to make improvements to make this transition work. Again 2030 does not mean total death of ICE. Just means there's a new growth of EV. And that it will have completely surpassed ICE at that point.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Future is looking cool!

[Murf the Surf]

Beautiful car, but that's to be expected from Maserati. But it's a Grand Touring car with 200 mile range? Thats not all that "Grand" for $245K USD.

[kyriian]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

That's all it takes for something to be set in stone. EU and america. EU being more strict.

Car makers have already made "promises". Again this is not looking good for ICE lovers. The only thing you guys are banking on, is that when the next person goes in office, things get reversed or backed out. Doubt it but that's your only chance.

Until then, the plan is laid out (i almost put "the plaid" is out LOL).

2030 is still far away so there's still time to make improvements to make this transition work. Again 2030 does not mean total death of ICE. Just means there's a new growth of EV. And that it will have completely surpassed ICE at that point.

It's hilarious that you think if the opposite party, whoever the nominee will be, takes office won't try to reverse the legacy of the previous guy. At times when there is logic and reasoning and modicum of common-sense approach to BOTH parties sure, but that's not the case today. Judging by the dysfunction of the American politics right now and the presumed frontrunners of the opposite party, that'd literally be job#1 for Florida man, or the Orange Teflon... thing, just to 'stick it to the libs' and their 'green agenda'

Hell we in Canada, if maple syrup version of Biden is voted out, the first thing our PC (Republican for you Americans, just with more maple syrup), will do is reverse, or at best delay the banning of ICE cars. Because that's what their base in Oil country Canada and the mecca of their support will want.

Anyways, this is getting political, which this topic absolutely will be, and i know the mods don't like that.

[G80indy]

EVs are black, not green tech. We could talk about the strip mining and the pre-production dirtiness of EV manufacturing, but everyone has heard that before. Or maybe not. That alone is a huge black mark.
I submit a modern ICE engine is more efficient with the fuel that it burns turning it to usable
Power for the road.
Here comes the run on sentence!
By the time a F.F. power plant generates electricity, sends that electricity over power lines to homes, then through a charger to the EV, power conversion is questionable for efficiency! Then— it sits in the battery, while it degrades sitting there, finally gets used on the road in a car that is NOT designed for efficiency as in the case of Tesla. It is designed for speed and power and acceleration, which is even less power-efficient! Therefore, EVs are burning up the equivalent fossil fuel faster than ice engines. Never mind that it's probably natural gas – it could be coal — Vs. gasoline.

Read it and weep EV apologists. You are being seduced with Misinformation.

Think about it… everyone should question the efficiency of it .
Not to mention the lie about reduced emissions.
Flame suit on — all the experts are going to chime in next.

[RichF90M5C]

How is the electricity produced, to power these electric vehicles?

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by RichF90M5C

How is the electricity produced, to power these electric vehicles?

In the US, it's about 60% fossil fuel (coal, NG, and other hydrocarbon) and the remainder wind, solar, and hydro. I think this article sheds the most factual light on the current environmental advantages and disadvantages of EVs in the US.

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/are-...s-powered-cars

The only thing I really question is the CO2 lifecycle of emissions of a gas car vs EV. There are still a bunch of old, heavy polluter gas cars on the road. I feel like the comparison really should focus on new gasoline car life cycle averages and same size vehicles, for example 2022 Tesla Model 3 vs gasoline 2022 Camry. By doing that, the data would be more comparable and useful. The way the referenced data in the article was generated was that all gasoline cars currently on the road were lumped together vs hybrid and EVs. EVs and hybrids are a much newer generation of car. A 2001 Malibu creates massively more emissions than a 2022 Malibu.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by RichF90M5C

How is the electricity produced, to power these electric vehicles?

It still ends up significantly cleaner and more efficient to power an EV by common fossil fuel power, like gas-turbines. Especially because modern gas turbines are around 65% efficient. The limitation on efficiency of ICE engines just makes it impractical to try and match this. TLDR: It's still more efficient, not even considering renewable resources. You might consider the fact that you have to have all these gas stations all over, they have to have tanks, pumps, have to truck fuel around all over the place from distribution centers, the trucks have to be built, and so on. Sure, electrical infrastructure is something too and needs maintenance...but again, don't disregard the absolutely giant process of transporting fuel to the end point.

Whatabout nuts.

[Froz3n_M]

Wake me up when the EV's can charge in 5 minutes from empty to full, then we can talk.

Until then, you can keep the EV's. All I hear is M3P's burning motors, battery degradation... Lets not get into build quality because that would require its own thread. But it doesn't stop with M3P's, its across the range for the Teslas. I can't speak for other brands, since there aren't many on the road (as Teslas), but I am sure it will eventually show its ugly head as well.

Has anyone thought about what happens to the battery packs when they're obsolete or won't charge to proper levels to power the car... There are so many issues the way the EV's pf our age are being rolled out its sickening. Its not about environmental, etc, the push is that its CHEAPER than gas and you can SAVE money by going EV. Thats what sells it, but we can all debate on every single point.

[G80indy]

Whatabout nuts.[/QUOTE]



What about walnuts to clean your "DI intake"

😜

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

so much morality projected onto others in topics like this. stay in your lane folks. theres no way electrics aren't the future. but why get so righteous about it now when clearly its not happening in our lifetimes.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by Froz3n_M

Wake me up when the EV's can charge in 5 minutes from empty to full, then we can talk.

Until then, you can keep the EV's. All I hear is M3P's burning motors, battery degradation... Lets not get into build quality because that would require its own thread. But it doesn't stop with M3P's, its across the range for the Teslas. I can't speak for other brands, since there aren't many on the road (as Teslas), but I am sure it will eventually show its ugly head as well.

Has anyone thought about what happens to the battery packs when they're obsolete or won't charge to proper levels to power the car... There are so many issues the way the EV's pf our age are being rolled out its sickening. Its not about environmental, etc, the push is that its CHEAPER than gas and you can SAVE money by going EV. Thats what sells it, but we can all debate on every single point.

That’s the issue with the argument you guys have.

TESLA IS NOT THE ONLY EV CAR MAKER ANYMORE LOL.

This is exactly why i said by 2030 you will see that “gigantic” swing. Because every car maker is making them now, and pumping them out like young couples having babies.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

That’s the issue with the argument you guys have.

TESLA IS NOT THE ONLY EV CAR MAKER ANYMORE LOL.

This is exactly why i said by 2030 you will see that “gigantic” swing. Because every car maker is making them now, and pumping them out like young couples having babies.

i guess TSLA and RIVAN TO THE MOON. huuuuggge gigantic returns

its also funny how we argue about things like this on bimmerpost, while most people are just struggling to make ends meet

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Exactly, and why $60K EVs are not going to sell in droves as some people believe they will. The EV has to get into the $35K price range for people to consider moving from ICE. While there is possible savings on fuel and total cost of ownership, the charging and range anxiety are real issues for lower-income people. Add to that most people's experience with rechargeable batteries extends to small batteries, their phone, and iPod, all of which eventually die and make the device useless, extrapolating that to an expensive automobile tightens one's buttocks. The 2nd tier ownership model is even harder to overcome because used car ownership comes with repair and refurbishment costs that are unknown at this point with high-mileage battery degradation.

But it'll all get solved come December 31, 2029. Lol.

In addition to the vehicle purchase, you have to spend $4-5k to install a quick charger and 240v service at your home to charge your EV.

Many people also seem to think it's largely free to charge an EV. In reality, it's anywhere from $11-100 depending on the vehicle's battery size and if it's being charged at home or at a charging station. A Hummer EV can cost a whopping $80-100 to charge.

The cost to service and repair an EV drivetrain can be astronomical, largely because there a very few serviceable parts, especially the motor. If you have a motor issue on a used, out of warranty EV, you might as well dump the car.

[Cos270]

I don't necessarily think our favorite EV fanboy is wrong in saying we are going to see a large shift around 2030. Now, whether he's talking sales and vehicles on the road, or simply EVs on the market is an important distinction. I think by that time you are going to have a plethora of options - making these things, even with the unforeseen supply chain issues, was never going to be the problem once legacy OEMs got on board. What I have yet to be convinced of is actual sales translating to a higher percentage of vehicles on the road being electric. Because at the end of the day, you cannot (at least, not yet) force people to spend their money on something. Even if we get to the point where we are at parity with ICE when it comes to range, charge time and purchase price, people may not want to make the switch for whatever reason (granted, I don't think we're going to be in that situation of parity for at least 25 years).

A much more likely outcome, and one of the reasons I'm seriously considering getting out of the automotive business, is automakers retooling and restructuring their entire companies to phase out ICE cars and make EVs, only for them not to sell in the volumes they need to fund these huge investments they've made. What will happen then? Either legislation gets passed banning ALL personal ICE vehicles, forcing people to buy EVs (can't imagine that going well) or another huge round of bailouts (but it will be more than just GM and Stellantis/FCA this time).

What many don't seem to understand is that none of these companies are capable of making dedicated ICE and EV platforms at large volumes while offering the diversified lineup of vehicles available today. It's simply too capital and resource intensive. That's why you're seeing two approaches from legacy companies: go all in on EV or put out a small handful of models to test the waters while they wait to see what happens with the companies who jump in feet first. Once you commit the money and resources (including time) to retool a facility to make EVs, you can't just flip a switch and suddenly start pumping out ICE cars or components again; whether it's for an engine/transmission plant, or especially a vehicle assembly plant - since most of the companies are developing entire new platforms for their EVs.

By 2025, we are going to have a pretty good idea if this has a chance of working. No need to wait till 2030 or the ICE bans some groups have already made.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by Cos270

I don't necessarily think our favorite EV fanboy is wrong in saying we are going to see a large shift around 2030. Now, whether he's talking sales and vehicles on the road, or simply EVs on the market is an important distinction.

He changed his original statement and is now using generalities for a reason.