[WhiteBeard]

I think sooner or later we will all drive electric cars, and IMHO it will be rather sooner than later. In my opinion, I think maybe 10 more years max and majority of market share will be electric. That's 2027. So basically it's only 3 new generations of BMW cars and that's it folks for petrol cars (some exceptions of course will be there still, like I doubt trucks and trailers will all go electric that fast). I may be wrong about 10 years, but it doesn't matter - it will be within our lifetime for sure.

So given that, let's share some thoughts - what will BMW be like?

IMHO if we take Tesla as a comparison (and I don't see any other luxury brand currently other than Tesla in the mass market) - I think BMW can take ANY current model it has and just exchange all petrol components (engine, transmission, basically all drive-train and associated accessories) and put instead a powerful electric motor and a battery pack (under rear seats, instead of petrol tank, as a floor panels etc) - I think that given powerful enough electric motor - ANY model of BMW should be BETTER in handling and driving while been plenty fast if not faster than Tesla. Currently Tesla only has mediocre chassis and body.

So essentially, what I'm trying to say is that BMW has already a vast knowledge and ready platforms of IMHO perfect chassis and bodies. I think brand-wise Tesla is no better than BMW. Yes, on average Tesla cars are pricier, but that is due to expensive battery packs - which will come down in price sooner or later. Eventually it will still be driving fun and chassis that will matter - and I think BMW, in that new world order of electric cars, can and should still be one of the best brands. Drive-trains will change from petrol to electric, but you can't change physics - chassis and body and fine-tuning of all components to get Ultimate Driving Machine - it's still going to be same deal.

What are your thoughts about all this?

[c63er]

I think you are way ahead of yourself.

10 years is a total and complete fantasy out of thin air. Think about world infrastructure.

If bmw could have a pure electric tesla fighter out there that actually made money then they would. It is not feasible right now. So the best we get are the i models, one of which is a sort of hybrid and are generally cheap feeling to save on weight and cost.

Think about low fuel prices. Think about several new large sources of fuel.

Also think about battery disposal and recycling.

Also think about hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells.

[GeeRam]

Originally Posted by WhiteBeard

I think sooner or later we will all drive electric cars, and IMHO it will be rather sooner than later. In my opinion, I think maybe 10 more years max and majority of market share will be electric. That's 2027. So basically it's only 3 new generations of BMW cars and that's it folks for petrol cars (some exceptions of course will be there still, like I doubt trucks and trailers will all go electric that fast). I may be wrong about 10 years, but it doesn't matter - it will be within our lifetime for sure.

10 years for majority of market share being electric........

Not a chance.....the support infrastructure for charging the damn things will never exist to make that possible, especially here in the UK.

I can easily see PHEV taking the majority of the market share in 10-15 years time.

[Efthreeoh]

BMW is way behind Tesla, GM, Nissan, Toyota, and Ford with EVs and hybrids. BMW started decades behind the others and it takes billions of dollars to develop new platforms. BMW while profitable, is not as large as most of the major players in the EV/Hybrid ranks. Making a cost competitive EV/Hybrid is not as easy as converting an ICE chassis to electric/hybrid.

And the world fleet of autos is not going to convert to electric anytime soon and not within the next 10 years. There is little industrial infrastructure to support it and very little consumer infrastructure to support it. And until gasoline gets super expensive, the economic benefit for most of the major automotive producers to convert to mostly EV/Hybrid platforms is and will be non existent.

[Finnegan]

Tesla, Ford, Toyota--nothing there from a real driver's perspective on the electric front (older Tesla roadster notwithstanding).

But there's a new kid (brand) in town that in taking electric to another level with its halo car. How's 13,60 HP and 1,000+ TQ sound? And a 7.05 Nürburgring time sound?

I'm sure I can't afford it but it sure looks fun.

[RABAUKE]

Intersting article in the National Post regarding EV's and the future visions.

http://driving.ca/auto-news/news/mot...-vehicle-crowd

Just as an aside, in Ontario where you get an $8000 rebate if you buy an EV, Toronto Hydro came out and said if 10% of the vehicles in Toronto were EV the grid would collapse.....this is all a nice idea but frankly there would be lots of infrastructure work to do before it's a reality....

[Finnegan]

Originally Posted by RABAUKE

Intersting article in the National Post regarding EV's and the future visions.

http://driving.ca/auto-news/news/mot...-vehicle-crowd

Just as an aside, in Ontario where you get an $8000 rebate if you buy an EV, Toronto Hydro came out and said if 10% of the vehicles in Toronto were EV the grid would collapse.....this is all a nice idea but frankly there would be lots of infrastructure work to do before it's a reality....

From the little I've read about Toronto Hydro (and I'm from the States) I think a hair dryer might do that. Plus they'd charge you a king's ransom if you live outside of an urban area. EV isn't going to be feasible for folks living in rural or semi-rural areas at current rates.

[RABAUKE]

Originally Posted by Finnegan

From the little I've read about Toronto Hydro (and I'm from the States) I think a hair dryer might do that. Plus they'd charge you a king's ransom if you live outside of an urban area. EV isn't going to be feasible for folks living in rural or semi-rural areas at current rates.

Ontario is screwed right now, we pay the highest hydro rates in North America and the sad part is we produce way more than we use and then sell it at a loss to the US, Quebec and Manitoba. A HUGE DAMN LOSS. And our government has committed us to another $130 Billion in green energy initiatives over the next decade or so, translates to higher hydro bills.

I don't have anything against EV's, I just don't think they are the silver bullet many think they are.

[Three Pedal Steve]

The new administration promises to roll back the latest EPA CAFE rules for 2020 and beyond. There maybe be no need for America to have all these electric cars. Sweden on the other hand has only electric cars in their future. So will BMW's new products be responsive to both markets?

[dzvero]

Maybe in 20-30 years manufacturers will produce more ev but not on the road . and 20 is very optimistic

[JorgenM]

BMW i3 became the best-selling car here in Norway for November. 1015 i3 were sold, out of 13194 new cars in total (and 1663 BMWs in total, meaning more i3s than all other models combined) First time ever in history AFAIK with BMW as #1.

20% of all new cars were EVs
24% of all new cars were hybrids

Just to show you how US, UK etc numbers will look like in a few years

[Germanauto]

I wonder how these cars would be selling without the federal cash incentives, or shall I say, taxpayer hand-outs?

[JorgenM]

Norway has no cash incentives or hand-outs, but there is no VAT on EVs (meaning 25% reduction)

[Viffermike]

Originally Posted by Finnegan

EV isn't going to be feasible for folks living in rural or semi-rural areas at current rates.

This is an excellent observation that not a lot of pundits consider. It's one thing to own an EV that has the range to get you through a rural area that has no charging stations (and only along, say, an Interstate to boot). It's a totally different thing to actually live in this rural area and consider an EV as a vehicle -- and only as personal transport. EVs are a long way off from functioning as freight tractors, heavy-duty pickups, box transports, autonomous buses, construction equipment ... This one thing will keep dino engines from disappearing completely for at least 20-30 years.

What about the tend toward hyperlocal alternative electricity generation (solar, wind, etc.), in the U.S. and elsewhere? How in the heck can a house that's mostly 'off the grid' generate the voltage to charge multiple vehicles as well as the rest of its systems? Such self-contained systems are only in the purvey of the rich and environmentally motivated, and they won't be mainstream for a long time -- and the only way they'll become mainstream is if homebuilders are incentivized to create them en masse by (you guessed it!) a government. Fat chance of that happening in this country for a long, long time (short of war over dwindling dino resources worldwide, recent new sources notwithstanding). In the meantime, it's the existing grid that'll need to take the hit -- and the existing grid has massive, potentially catastrophic issues even at current (pun slightly intended) usage, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.

Also: as EV market share will increase, government incentives will decrease. Even in small, affluent-per-capita, save-the-earth-mad countries like the Netherlands and Norway, those tax breaks will eventually disappear because, hey: the government's gotta bring in income, too ...

... finally: Someone please tell me how the following vehicles will operate without dino fuel in the next 20-30 years:
- aircraft
- cargo ships
- military transports of all types (except your nuclear-powered naval vessels)
- railroad locomotives that haul freight
Can corn-based ethanol power high-efficiency jet engines? Can nuclear reactors be re-tasked to power the ships that brought your BMW to the States (or wherever) from Europe? Will the military ever give a flip about converting existing (and commissioning replacement) vehicles to use alternative fuels until that fuel is no longer alternative? I mean, think about it: an EV tank? An EV Osprey? An EV C-130? Never, ever gonna happen.

And how much is any of that gonna cost? Trillions. Not billions. Trillions. Maybe more.

... yeah. In most of the world (Holland and Norway aren't typical countries), EVs will be a viable option for some, but not most, for at least 50 years, IMHO. They will simply be an option -- one among several -- and there are vehicles everyone depends on that will never be electric because, well, it's basically not scientifically or fiscally possible.

Finally ... How's a country like India, where 3-4 percent pay income tax and infrastructure varies wildly from hyperadvanced to pre-medieval, supposed to go electric?

[David70]

Originally Posted by WhiteBeard

I think sooner or later we will all drive electric cars, and IMHO it will be rather sooner than later. In my opinion, I think maybe 10 more years max and majority of market share will be electric. That's 2027.

Tesla came out with their first electric car 10 years ago, the government is helping sell every car made and the % of electric new cars is now less 2%. I say it will be much longer than 10 years to get over 50%. When people are buying them without government subsidies and car companies are making reasonable profits on them we will have something.

Bloomberg published today a feature claiming GM will lose up to $9,000 for each Bolt that it manufactures and sells.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ctric-car-boom

Originally Posted by JorgenM

Norway has no cash incentives or hand-outs, but there is no VAT on EVs (meaning 25% reduction)

So no handouts you just don't have to pay 25% tax, similar to a government handout.