Chinese rocket debris expected to hit earth on May 8th, but nobody knows where

TiMSport · 05-06-2021, 04:00 PM

Key points:

*Estimated landing time is Saturday May 8th
*The location of the debris will be known only hours before its reentry
*The rocket is traveling at a speed of 18,000mph
*Rocket is in orbit and will be falling back to earth uncontrolled

https://www.spacecom.mil/News/Articl...pace-trackorg/

Joekerr · 05-06-2021, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiMSport

*Estimated landing time is Saturday May 8th

I like how you used the words "landing time" rather than words like "impact", or "crash".

infinitekidM2C · 05-06-2021, 04:13 PM

Meh it'll land in the ocean. The sky isn't falling brahs.

TiMSport · 05-06-2021, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by infinitekidM2C

Meh it'll land in the ocean. The sky isn't falling brahs.

Actually that is not known, but based on probability, perhaps since the ocean covers 70% of earth's surface. Most of the debris will probably burn up before impacting earth but there is a history of some getting through. China also has a history of this. When they launched another rocket of the same class debris ended up hitting populated areas in the Ivory Coast.

Lady Jane · 05-06-2021, 04:27 PM

Debris don't bother me.

JP10 · 05-06-2021, 04:59 PM

Hope it takes me out, one of those days lol

vreihen16 · 05-06-2021, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lady Jane

Debris don't bother me.

It shouldn't bother you, since Canada is north of 41.5 degrees latitude and therefore is not in the orbital path:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/chin...ntry-1.6013654

I can say for 100% certainty that it is going to crash on my house this weekend...because I just washed my car!!!!!

TiMSport · 05-06-2021, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vreihen16

It shouldn't bother you, since Canada is north of 41.5 degrees latitude and therefore is not in the orbital path:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/chin...ntry-1.6013654

I can say for 100% certainty that it is going to crash on my house this weekend...because I just washed my car!!!!!

LOL. Normally it's just bird poop but in your case, well that's pretty special.

Fly320s · 05-06-2021, 06:15 PM

Who has the pool for the crash location?

$1 per square mile. Largest piece to hit the Earth is the piece that counts.

Sassicaia · 05-06-2021, 06:50 PM

Hopefully it lands on Xi.

XutvJet · 05-06-2021, 07:17 PM

dreamingat30fps · 05-06-2021, 07:27 PM

They can land a go kart carrying a helicopter on fucking Mars but they have no idea where this thing will land?

M_Six · 05-06-2021, 08:49 PM

Well when it misses all of us, we can go post in the "Today was a good day..." thread.

vreihen16 · 05-06-2021, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by M_Six

Well when it misses all of us, we can go post in the "Today was a good day..." thread.

...or takes out Brooklyn.....

3.0L · 05-06-2021, 09:15 PM

I think that most man-made orbiting items (in decaying orbits) burn up in the atmosphere before hitting the ground. As to the larger orbiting items, their size decreases somewhat as they burn during re-entry.

So who knows.

TiMSport · 05-06-2021, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3.0L

I think that most man-made orbiting items (in decaying orbits) burn up in the atmosphere before hitting the ground. As to the larger orbiting items, their size decreases somewhat as they burn during re-entry.

So who knows.

Yes, generally that is true but we just can't be sure as there have been cases of debris actually hitting populated areas. This won't be the first time China has done this either.

dreamingat30fps · 05-06-2021, 09:40 PM

I would've thought the US has the ability to track it and figure out where it's going.

vreihen16 · 05-06-2021, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

I would've thought the US has the ability to track it and figure out where it's going.

If you knew a little about orbital decay and the number of environmental variables at play, you would understand why nobody knows where along its orbital path this *uncontrolled* object will decide to lawn dart itself. My guess is that they have a prediction within 3-4 orbits as of now. The thing is moving over 17,000 MPH as I write this, in an elliptical orbit ~100 miles high, and with an orbital period of 89 minutes to make one lap of the Earth.

https://www.n2yo.com/?s=48275

If someone is starting a Maidenhead locator grid pool, I'll take GL because there's nothing out there but the fishes to hit:

Remember, latitudes A-D and O-R are absolutely out of play because of this object's orbital inclination.....

TiMSport · 05-06-2021, 10:19 PM

^^Orbital Decay Engineer^^

vreihen16 · 05-06-2021, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiMSport

^^Orbital Decay Engineer^^

No. Just someone who was chained to a 1970's computer in high school, and forced to enter daily Keplerian element updates for two dozen objects in orbit and then print all above-horizon orbital passes for the day.....

TiMSport · 05-06-2021, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vreihen16

No. Just someone who was chained to a 1970's computer in high school, and forced to enter daily Keplerian element updates for two dozen objects in orbit and then print all above-horizon orbital passes for the day.....

Lol. If you were truly using something that looks like this computer from the 70s I would be seriously impressed. Actually I'm impressed no matter what because I don't know jack about Keplerian elements.

Fly320s · 05-07-2021, 06:58 AM

This is the live track of the booster.

05-06-2021, 04:00 PM	#1
TiMSport Banned 12854 Rep 2,983 Posts Drives: '21 M340i xDrive, '17 Audi S3 Join Date: Feb 2021 Location: ATL iTrader: (0)	Chinese rocket debris expected to hit earth on May 8th, but nobody knows where Key points: Estimated landing time is Saturday May 8th The location of the debris will be known only hours before its reentry The rocket is traveling at a speed of 18,000mph Rocket is in orbit and will be falling back to earth uncontrolled https://www.spacecom.mil/News/Articl...pace-trackorg/
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05-06-2021, 04:13 PM	#3
infinitekidM2C Major General 4301 Rep 5,729 Posts Drives: 2019 M2 Competition Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Orange County, CA iTrader: (4) Garage List 2019 M2 COMPETITION [9.75] 2008 135i (my old car) [7.56]	Meh it'll land in the ocean. The sky isn't falling brahs.
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05-06-2021, 04:27 PM	#5
Lady Jane Cailín gan eagla. 87304 Rep 1,072 Posts Drives: 2024 X3 M40i and R1200RT bike. Join Date: Mar 2020 Location: Atlantic Canada. iTrader: (0)	Debris don't bother me.
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05-06-2021, 04:59 PM	#6
JP10 Major 2415 Rep 1,143 Posts Drives: M3 Join Date: Jan 2018 Location: SC iTrader: (0)	Hope it takes me out, one of those days lol
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05-06-2021, 06:15 PM	#9
Fly320s Private First Class 1562 Rep 140 Posts Drives: Car Join Date: Sep 2017 Location: NH iTrader: (0) Garage List 2020 BMW M2C [5.50]	Who has the pool for the crash location? $1 per square mile. Largest piece to hit the Earth is the piece that counts.
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05-06-2021, 06:50 PM	#10
Sassicaia Brigadier General 4430 Rep 3,308 Posts Drives: SMB F80 6MT Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Vancouver, Canada iTrader: (0)	Hopefully it lands on Xi.
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XutvJet Major General 6266 Rep 5,645 Posts Drives: 2011 Cayman Base, 2018 M2 Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: Kansas City iTrader: (-1)	__________________ The forest was shrinking, but the Trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.
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05-06-2021, 07:27 PM	#12
dreamingat30fps Lieutenant Colonel 6124 Rep 1,951 Posts Drives: Miata, ES350, Model 3, F350 Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: South Florida & NC iTrader: (1)	They can land a go kart carrying a helicopter on fucking Mars but they have no idea where this thing will land?
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05-06-2021, 08:49 PM	#13
M_Six Free Thinker 20346 Rep 7,567 Posts Drives: 2016 MB GLC300 4matic Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Foothills of Mt Level iTrader: (0)	Well when it misses all of us, we can go post in the "Today was a good day..." thread. __________________ Mark markj.pics "Life is uncertain, eat bacon now." -UncleWede
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05-06-2021, 09:15 PM	#15
3.0L Colonel 12600 Rep 2,014 Posts Drives: 2014 BMW M235i, 2024 GLC300 Join Date: Apr 2014 Location: California iTrader: (0)	I think that most man-made orbiting items (in decaying orbits) burn up in the atmosphere before hitting the ground. As to the larger orbiting items, their size decreases somewhat as they burn during re-entry. So who knows. __________________ 2014 BMW M235i 2024 Mercedes Benz GLC300 Has it been 4 years yet?
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05-06-2021, 09:40 PM	#17
dreamingat30fps Lieutenant Colonel 6124 Rep 1,951 Posts Drives: Miata, ES350, Model 3, F350 Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: South Florida & NC iTrader: (1)	I would've thought the US has the ability to track it and figure out where it's going.
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05-06-2021, 10:19 PM	#19
TiMSport Banned 12854 Rep 2,983 Posts Drives: '21 M340i xDrive, '17 Audi S3 Join Date: Feb 2021 Location: ATL iTrader: (0)	^^Orbital Decay Engineer^^
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05-07-2021, 06:58 AM	#22
Fly320s Private First Class 1562 Rep 140 Posts Drives: Car Join Date: Sep 2017 Location: NH iTrader: (0) Garage List 2020 BMW M2C [5.50]	This is the live track of the booster.
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