[radix]

I think John made the last two a bit too easy... so let's see who solves this.


You walk into your BMW dealership and a greeted by the general manager (GM). He tells you that you have the opportunity to win a brand new E92 M3 and ten million dollars, and all you have to do to win is make a choice. Being the BMW fan that you are you sign up for the contest without really reading the rules.

The rules to the contest are as follows.

- You will be presented with three brand new E92 M3s that are all exactly the same.

- In the trunk of one of the three M3s there is a briefcase containing ten million U.S. dollars.

- The trunks of the other two cars are wired to explode when opened.

- The GM asks you to pick one of the three cars.

- You make your selection.

- After making your selection the GM will show you a bomb in the trunk of one of the two cars that you did not pick.

- After showing you the bomb contained in the trunk of one of the two cars that you did not pick, the GM will offer you the chance to change your car selection.


The question is simple. Do you change your selection after the GM shows you a bomb in one of the two cars that you didn't initially pick? If yes, why? If no, why? An explanation is required, a simple yes or no answer will not suffice.

[Tondtar]

Yes ... but only if he's standing further from it than my original selected car. The guy does not wanna get blow away when I open the wrong trunk.

Fair enough?

[e82mon]

Haha this is a great riddle i remember hearing this from someone a few years back. If i can recall correctly, there is no 100% correct answer to this questions- its actually a very highly debatable question among many statistic experts from what i've heard (seriously). The thing is, many people believe switching the cases at the last minute actually increases your odds my x% or some number. I forget the depth of it but im gonna figure out why and come back, its actually pretty interesting...

[Monaco35Dream]

yes you change you answer because initially you had a 33.3% chance of getting it right....take one out and your chances are now 50/50...watch the movie "21" and this riddle is in it...

[radix]

Originally Posted by Tondtar

Yes ... but only if he's standing further from it than my original selected car. The guy does not wanna get blow away when I open the wrong trunk.

Fair enough?

Let's assume that you are the only person within the blast radius of the bombs. I like your thinking though. I guess I should have been more thorough.

[e82mon]

Originally Posted by Monaco35Dream

yes you change you answer because initially you had a 33.3% chance of getting it right....take one out and your chances are now 50/50...watch the movie "21" and this riddle is in it...

yup he's correct, i just googled it and in simple terms, first you have a 1 out of 3 chance to choose the correct box, but then by the GM showing you 1 empty box, your odds become 2/3 or something like that...

[Monaco35Dream]

Originally Posted by e82mon

yup he's correct, i just googled it and in simple terms, first you have a 1 out of 3 chance to choose the correct box, but then by the GM showing you 1 empty box, your odds become 2/3 or something like that...

yes that's what i was trying to get at...your odd's increase to 2/3 on the last case that wasn't picked originally.

[e82mon]

Originally Posted by anmcguire

I think John made the last two a bit too easy... so let's see who solves this.


You walk into your BMW dealership and a greeted by the general manager (GM). He tells you that you have the opportunity to win a brand new E92 M3 and ten million dollars, and all you have to do to win is make a choice. Being the BMW fan that you are you sign up for the contest without really reading the rules.

The rules to the contest are as follows.

- You will be presented with three brand new E92 M3s that are all exactly the same.

- In the trunk of one of the three M3s there is a briefcase containing ten million U.S. dollars.

- The trunks of the other two cars are wired to explode when opened.

- The GM asks you to pick one of the three cars.

- You make your selection.

- After making your selection the GM will show you a bomb in the trunk of one of the two cars that you did not pick.

- After showing you the bomb contained in the trunk of one of the two cars that you did not pick, the GM will offer you the chance to change your car selection.


The question is simple. Do you change your selection after the GM shows you a bomb in one of the two cars that you didn't initially pick? If yes, why? If no, why? An explanation is required, a simple yes or no answer will not suffice.

i got another amazing riddle like that if u want lol

[Tondtar]

Originally Posted by Monaco35Dream

yes you change you answer because initially you had a 33.3% chance of getting it right....take one out and your chances are now 50/50...watch the movie "21" and this riddle is in it...

I am not sure if that makes such a difference in this case because the cars are not shuffled like a 3 Card Monte trick. It does not sound right logically.

[Monaco35Dream]

Originally Posted by Tondtar

I am not sure if that makes such a difference in this case because the cars are not shuffled like a 3 Card Monte trick. It does not sound right logically.

No shuffling required

[sinnet112]

It's called the Monty Hall Problem, if you want a mathematical explanation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Just use Bayes Rule to figure it out. But yes, you should always switch

[e82mon]

yea its a great riddle

[radix]

I'm both impressed and disappointed that this was solved so quickly. Most people, when asked IRL, do not get the answer correct the first time. Many can't even grasp the concept once it's explained to them. Although I tried my best to mask the answer by changing all the terms in the problem to be more BMW-centric, I didn't expect two things:


1. The level of familiarity with the problem.
2. All the bright posters to chime in at the beginning of the thread.


I've feel as though I've failed to adequately challenge OT, but I've got more problems, although I'll have to change the wording on those as well to prevent simple google searches. I expected at least 3-4 pages of bickering. I will have my revenge OT. I will have my revenge.

[radix]

Originally Posted by e82mon

i got another amazing riddle like that if u want lol

Please do post it.

[Monaco35Dream]

More!! I just saw that movie last week though so it was really fresh in my mind...I admit I kinda cheated

[e82mon]

Originally Posted by anmcguire

I'm both impressed and disappointed that this was solved so quickly. Most people, when asked IRL, do not get the answer correct the first time. Many can't even grasp the concept once it's explained to them. Although I tried my best to mask the answer by changing all the terms in the problem to be more BMW-centric, I didn't expect two things:


1. The level of familiarity with the problem.
2. All the bright posters to chime in at the beginning of the thread.


I've feel as though I've failed to adequately challenge OT, but I've got more problems, although I'll have to change the wording on those as well to prevent simple google searches. I expected at least 3-4 pages of bickering. I will have my revenge OT. I will have my revenge.

nah that was a great riddle man, keep posting this could turn into a fun thread! their fun to think about and try to figure out if youve never heard them before...

[sinnet112]

Originally Posted by anmcguire

I'm both impressed and disappointed that this was solved so quickly. Most people, when asked IRL, do not get the answer correct the first time. Many can't even grasp the concept once it's explained to them. Although I tried my best to mask the answer by changing all the terms in the problem to be more BMW-centric, I didn't expect two things:


1. The level of familiarity with the problem.
2. All the bright posters to chime in at the beginning of the thread.


I've feel as though I've failed to adequately challenge OT, but I've got more problems, although I'll have to change the wording on those as well to prevent simple google searches. I expected at least 3-4 pages of bickering. I will have my revenge OT. I will have my revenge.

Haha, I've taken an Economics of Uncertainty course, which covered this so I've heard it before, but any new ones that you have would definitely be great to hear! Post more!

[radix]

Originally Posted by sinnet112

Haha, I've taken an Economics of Uncertainty course, which covered this so I've heard it before, but any new ones that you have would definitely be great to hear! Post more!

Will do. I've got what I think is the hardest riddle I've ever solved. It took me 30-45 minutes and pen and paper to figure it out. Before I post it, I have to hack the hell out of it to make sure that it's not easy to google the answer. I'll post it later this evening. The only problem is that it is also fairly well known.

[e82mon]

Originally Posted by anmcguire

Will do. I've got what I think is the hardest riddle I've ever solved. It took me 30-45 minutes and pen and paper to figure it out. Before I post it, I have to hack the hell out of it to make sure that it's not easy to google the answer. I'll post it later this evening. The only problem is that it is also fairly well known.

have one just like that did the same thing to me... we might have the same 1 lol!

[Tondtar]

Originally Posted by e82mon

nah that was a great riddle man, keep posting this could turn into a fun thread! their fun to think about and try to figure out if youve never heard them before...

+1 ...After reading through a million mindless posts here (which I am also guilty of contributing my share of it, BTW ), it's refreshing to see this sort of mind challenges.

MOARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, please!

[c0nstant]

yes you do, you have to account for variable change. it may seem that you now have a 50% chance to win, but you now have a ~66% chance at winning. after a bomb is revealed you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the bomb and 2/3 chance of winning and fapping

[c0nstant]

asfdadfasdf i didnt read the thread, looks like im a little late