[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by Carnook

Yes and...? SUV sales generate higher revenues and margins so thats all good news for BMW.

Given the activity on Bimmerpost in the X Forums vs the Car forums, it had news for most Bimmerpost readers as focus shifts while Tesla proves the market for cars is there.

[ecaedus]

Originally Posted by Carnook

Yes and...? SUV sales generate higher revenues and margins so thats all good news for BMW.

X1 desperately needs a refresh, which is coming. It's got great potential, BMW needs a well rounded X1 to capture the compact entry level luxury crossover segment. X4/6 needs to be axed IMO, they bring nothing new to the table and the drastically decreasing sales number reflect that.

X3/5 are doing well and it's clear BMW has put a lot of effort into the new gen SUVs. i hope they can continue to put out strong sales numbers.

regarding tesla, comparing the current Model 3 sale numbers against a 3 series that everyone knows is on the way out is not fair. we already know half a million people signed up for the car 4 years ago, so the fact that tesla is selling the model 3 as fast as it can make them shouldn't be any surprise at all.

the real interesting sales comparison will come when the G20 arrives at dealerships. the first quarter numbers of the new G20 will be the proper one to compare against the Model 3 (maybe around that time the Standard mythical 35K model will be released).

if that number is somehow less than tesla's (which i doubt) then we can say that BMW is in a bit of a problem and will need to step up it's electrification game since clearly the market has made its decision regarding EV vs ICE.

the next important battleground will be around the X3 vs model Y around 2021, when the x3 will be facelifted and model Y will supposedly go on sale. either way it's going to be an interesting 5 years down the road for all car companies.

on a side note i think tesla really has come a long way, the fact that ppl are mentioning its sales numbers in a bmw thread on a bmw forum is enough reason that the company is a legitimate threat. i mean you don't hear people bringing up Fisker or Bolt or I Pace sales on here...

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by ecaedus

we already know half a million people signed up for the car 4 years ago, so the fact that tesla is selling the model 3 as fast as it can make them shouldn't be any surprise at all.

Naturally, yes. The noteworthy piece has been the conquesting from BMW.

the real interesting sales comparison will come when the G20 arrives at dealerships. the first quarter numbers of the new G20 will be the proper one to compare against the Model 3 (maybe around that time the Standard mythical 35K model will be released).

if that number is somehow less than tesla's (which i doubt) then we can say that BMW is in a bit of a problem and will need to step up it's electrification game since clearly the market has made its decision regarding EV vs ICE.

I feel comfortable calling it right now - MY2019 3 Series sales will at no time come even close to Model 3 sales. The reason is simple - Tesla still has hundreds of thousands of backorders to fill. Furthermore, I think it is fairly clear at this point that the reason the Model 3 bucks the trend of shrinking passenger car sales across the industry is that it is electric (and more specifically, is the first reasonably priced, practical ICE replacement vehicle on the market, though the Chevrolet Bolt is very compelling as well). That's a fairly killer USP that ensures brisk sales for the foreseeable future.

the next important battleground will be around the X3 vs model Y around 2021, when the x3 will be facelifted and model Y will supposedly go on sale. either way it's going to be an interesting 5 years down the road for all car companies.

I think we should expect the Model Y to have nearly as big an impact as the Model 3 has. While there are a number of electric luxury SUVs coming to market now and over the next two years in the span of time before the Model Y will hit the market, its value will likely eclipse all of those. Naturally the rest of the industry won't sit still, though. Investments in battery technology should start to pay off by early to mid next decade.

The iX3 will be a compelling vehicle in that it will offer everything the current X3 does, including the BMW quality and premium interior. The question is whether that is genuinely what the market prioritizes when it comes to an EV. Indeed, from what we know so far, it will have a 250 mile range - likely less than the LR Model Y - and, more damningly (if current information holds) it will only offer 2WD. So it remains to be seen how this competition will unfold.

[ecaedus]

all good points. i think the difficult situation that's facing all ICE manufactures is not only they have to compete with each other for entry lvl compact sales, but also the fact that EV itself is drawing consumers away from ICE in general. and it just so happens that Tesla is currently the only luxury EV brand out there, so all the conquest sales will naturally go there.

but then again, it's hard to fully commit to changing your factories and supply chain for EVs when the potential return doesn't make sense after the cost.

your last point is very interesting too. personally i overlooked and compromised with the interior quality of the model 3 when i bought it because i wanted the EV driving dynamics and autopilot in particular. The question is how many ppl are willing to do the same for Model Y.

[bimmer456]

Initial sales of model 3 are strong as it is first to market. Once everyone has one that wants one sales will level off. By then the other manufacturers will have electric vehicles that will compete in the segment and force more innovation benefiting the consumer. Used cars will plummet in value which is where I come in.

[ecaedus]

Originally Posted by bimmer456

Initial sales of model 3 are strong as it is first to market. Once everyone has one that wants one sales will level off. By then the other manufacturers will have electric vehicles that will compete in the segment and force more innovation benefiting the consumer. Used cars will plummet in value which is where I come in.

yeah sedan sales have been dwindling for a while now and model 3 will be no exception. although i don't think the used model 3s are going to crash in value for quite a while, depending on how soon competitors can push out their similar price and spec EV alternatives,correct me if i;m wrong but i don't think there are any plans for EV sedans from any manufactures yet.

[bimmer456]

Originally Posted by ecaedus

yeah sedan sales have been dwindling for a while now and model 3 will be no exception. although i don't think the used model 3s are going to crash in value for quite a while, depending on how soon competitors can push out their similar price and spec EV alternatives,correct me if i;m wrong but i don't think there are any plans for EV sedans from any manufactures yet.

Once current owners grow tired of there model 3 there will be 100s of thousands on the secondary market readily available as folks trade them in for the model y. Just like with the s, there was a CPO I saw for $37k, cheaper than a new model 3. So model 3 will follow suit and expect used prices in the $15k range in a couple years.

[ecaedus]

Originally Posted by bimmer456

Once current owners grow tired of there model 3 there will be 100s of thousands on the secondary market readily available as folks trade them in for the model y. Just like with the s, there was a CPO I saw for $37k, cheaper than a new model 3. So model 3 will follow suit and expect used prices in the $15k range in a couple years.

i think the $37K car you saw is the lowest in the country right? that's not really a good indicator of the median price of a used model s, if you go on to tesla's used car website you'll see that the majority of cars listed on there are around the 50K mark. depreciated sure, but not that heavily to be honest with respect to their trim level. model 3 will definitely depreciate in the coming future but i seriously doubt your "pick up one for $15K in two years" assumption, i don't think any car this side of the maserati ghibli has seen a depreciation this devasting.

when you say owners will trade them away for other cars, well, there needs to be some viable and superior options for them to make that trade. sure Model Y provides an internal cannibalistic pressure on the model 3 but i don't see it as the major driving force in people trading, if we look outside of the tesla brand, again you don't see any similarly priced, superior alternatives coming up within the next couple of years either, 5-10 years down the line? sure, but nothing in the short term.

[NSummers]

The market in my company office space is telsa or suv. No one really drives a sedan much. They redraw all the sedan car parking lines into suv parking lines. I enjoy my extra space around the z4 now because all the space are bigger for suv. Do you guys see an increase in suv in your town ? my other car is MDX and RAV4... so 2 suv and a small car

[bimmer456]

Originally Posted by rsutoratosu

The market in my company office space is telsa or suv. No one really drives a sedan much. They redraw all the sedan car parking lines into suv parking lines. I enjoy my extra space around the z4 now because all the space are bigger for suv. Do you guys see an increase in suv in your town ? my other car is MDX and RAV4... so 2 suv and a small car

No Model X? They need to redraw the lines at my office. My 3 series doesn't fit in the compact spot, only motorcycles and smart cars fit.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by ecaedus

correct me if i;m wrong but i don't think there are any plans for EV sedans from any manufactures yet.

At the Model 3 pricepoint? Not soon. But the Porchse Taycan will hit next year at $75k-ish. The BMW i4 is coming around 2021. Volvo and Polestar will have something affordable next decade as well.

Almost every manufacturer has multiple electric vehicles planned for release by 2025. Most of those are SUVs or SUV-like vehicles for obvious reasons - that's where the market is headed. But some will be sedans and hatchbacks (and a few coupes, convertibles, sports cars, supercars, and hypercars, too, of course).